Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-28
Options put/call open interest 0.70, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price235.27 USD
Fair value188.80
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Distribution235.27+0.0% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 12% slide in 2 weeks
2026-10-18Read Markup266.25-11.6% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-11Read Accumulation268.13-12.3% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markup268.13-12.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 15% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Datadog holds its Distribution at $235.27. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 40 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 40 days
Price at the screen
$235.27
Valuation
531.68 trailing · 89.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.51
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
19.25%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 19.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
61.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 61.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
17.20%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
5.67%
Below 5%
5.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Datadog's business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 61% of its assets, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-31. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $188.80 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 35.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 47 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $188.80, with a range of $142.20 to $217.12, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cloud Monitor Trades Well Beyond Its Worth
Every developer chasing uptime in the cloud ends up feeding logs and metrics into Datadog. Yet the business sits on a weak moat, slim 4 percent profit margins and just 4 percent return on equity, while revenue growth of 32 percent fails to justify an 89.8 times forward earnings multiple.
We pass because the shares trade at a 36 percent premium to fair value and the company fails our ethical screen on interest-bearing securities. Analyst consensus calls for strong buy at the current price, yet the numbers show a business that has not yet proved durable pricing power or consistent cash returns.
High valuation leaves little room for any slowdown in cloud spending, and the ethical flag removes it from consideration entirely. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DDOG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (47 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $223. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$265.84+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (47 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $223. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$265.84-1.4%Entry 20
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (47 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $223. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup$269.65+1.3%Entry 19
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (47 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $223. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$266.25+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (47 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $223. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$266.25+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (47 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $223.
2026-10-18Markup · changed$266.25-0.7%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (47 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $223.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (47 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $223.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$268.13+15.3%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (47 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $223.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 17.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (47 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $223.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
