Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.49, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price119.87 USD
Fair value125.20
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup112.26+6.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-08-27Read Distribution115.69+3.6% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 6% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup108.84+10.1% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce holds its Markup at $119.87. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$119.87
Valuation
15.80 trailing · 14.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.24
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
168.06%
Below 5%
168.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 4% discount to our $125.20 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 16.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 4.3% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $125.20, with a range of $93.94 to $152.00, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bank Numbers Look Fine Until Ethics Bite
Picture a big Canadian lender handling mortgages and business loans across provinces where everyday customers just want reliable service. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce shows 15 percent revenue growth, a 34 percent profit margin and 15 percent ROE, yet the valuation sits above our fair value with a negative margin of safety and only a moderate moat.
We pass on this name because it fails the ethical screen on business activity. That single issue overrides the forward P/E of 15.3 times and the buy-rated analyst targets that sit below the current share price.
The real risk is that banks can look cheap on earnings multiples right before credit cycles turn, and here the ethical red flag removes any reason to dig deeper. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CM trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup$116.52+3.8%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $121.
2026-10-28Markup · changed$112.26+0.0%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-10-21Distribution$112.26+2.8%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-10-14Distribution$109.20-3.9%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $119.
2026-10-02Distribution$113.60-1.8%Entry 13
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $119.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $119. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Markup$115.69+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $119. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup$115.69+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $119. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Markup$115.69+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Markup$115.69+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
