Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.71, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price82.40 USD
Fair value101.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation72.78+13.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown72.78+13.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since August
2026-09-21Read Accumulation75.03+9.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-08-21Read Markdown75.75+8.8% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
American International Group holds its Accumulation at $82.40. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 168 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-02
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 168 days
Price at the screen
$82.40
Valuation
14.92 trailing · 9.24 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.53
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
American International does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-02. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 23% discount to our $101.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 0.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $101.00, with a range of $99.11 to $163.80, dated to the 2026-11-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
AIG carries ethical flags that markets ignore
Every claim paid or premium collected by AIG moves through a vast insurance network that touches ordinary lives daily. Analysts see a cheap forward multiple near 9 times earnings and a modest revenue uptick, yet the numbers sit alongside a narrow moat and single-digit returns on equity.
We pass because the business activity screen flags the company outright. That single ethical breach overrides any surface appeal from the 27 percent gap between the current price and our fair value estimate. Low growth and average profitability only reinforce the decision.
The real risk lies in how ethical screens can shift sentiment fast, even when earnings look steady. Twenty analysts still lean buy, but their targets do not address the core issue. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AIG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Accumulation$81.90+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$81.90+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$81.90+0.6%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$81.44+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$81.44+2.3%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$79.58+0.6%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$79.12+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$79.12+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$79.12+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-10-18Accumulation$79.12+8.7%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.