Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.00, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price34.67 USD
Fair value42.41
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 7 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Accumulation32.22+7.6% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 5% slide in 5 weeks
2026-09-15Read Markdown33.93+2.2% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-15Read Markup32.34+7.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 30% rise in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution24.82+39.7% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Toast Inc holds its Accumulation at $34.67. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 96 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-07
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 96 days
Price at the screen
$34.67
Valuation
38.10 trailing · 19.67 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.71
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.64%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
20.29%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 20.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
47.06%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 47.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.83%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Toast clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when TOST's ethical verdict changes
Today TOST passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 7 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly an 18% discount to our $42.41 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 21.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 18.3% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $42.41, with a range of $34.37 to $57.29, dated to the 2026-11-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Tablets at every restaurant table hide a narrow moat
Walk into any busy restaurant and the tablet taking orders and payments is probably running Toast. The business sits on 22 percent revenue growth, a 6 percent profit margin and 22 percent ROE while clearing the ethical screen with a narrow moat.
Those figures look respectable and the shares trade at 17.8 times forward earnings with a 31 percent margin of safety to our fair value. Yet the opportunity rating sits at none, so we pass.
Risk sits in the narrow moat and heavy reliance on US restaurants where competition can intensify quickly. Analyst targets cluster around 35 dollars, below our own number. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TOST trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Accumulation$33.42+5.5%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$31.68+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$31.68+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$31.68+0.6%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$31.50-1.4%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$31.94-0.6%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$32.13+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$32.13-0.3%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14Markdown$31.31+5.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
