NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Capital Markets
Jefferies Financial Group Inc
JEF · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $11.0B · 7,596 employees
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
53.93 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Jefferies Financial Group Inc holds its Markdown at $53.93. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days
Price at the screen
$53.93
Valuation
15.06 trailing · 11.88 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Capital Markets
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Capital Markets
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 21.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Capital markets broker hits the ethical wall
Picture a dealmaker in New York sealing an IPO while fees roll in from every time zone. Jefferies shows revenue growth of 35 percent, a 23 percent profit margin and trades at 12.1 times forward earnings with a narrow moat. The numbers are respectable and analysts see further upside, yet the stock fails our ethical screen on capital markets exposure.
That single filter rules it out. We do not need to weigh the 19 percent margin of safety to fair value or the buy-rated consensus when the business sits in an excluded industry. The screen exists for exactly these cases.
Capital markets revenue remains lumpy and tied to deal flow that can dry up fast in any downturn. Even a low multiple offers little protection if earnings peak and then fall. Analysis, not advice.
3.65heavy leverage: higher risk if revenue softens
Short interest, float
0.03%
52-week range
35.53 - 71.04
Moat
NARROW
Market cap
$11.0B
Employees
7,596
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JEF trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-02Markdown · changed$52.33-8.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$57.23-7.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Accumulation$61.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-03Accumulation$61.66+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$61.66Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
