Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-28
Options put/call open interest 4.75, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price150.87 USD
Fair value203.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markdown168.58-10.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 4 days
2026-11-01Read Accumulation178.80-15.6% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 10% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-18Read Markdown162.09-6.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-11Read Markup168.33-10.4% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 6% rise in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Guardant Health Inc holds its Accumulation at $150.87. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$150.87
Valuation
N/A trailing · -397.90 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
84.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 84.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
40.89%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 40.9% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
25.37%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 25.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.47%
Below 5%
Only 3.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Guardant Health's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 85% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 26% discount to our $203.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 36.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 25.7% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $203.00, with a range of $105.00 to $240.00, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Liquid biopsies still deep in the red
A simple blood draw can spot cancer mutations without a tissue sample, and Guardant Health sells exactly that service to hospitals and drug makers. Revenue is rising 48% a year as adoption grows, yet the business still posts a 40% negative profit margin and a forward P/E of minus 360 times.
We pass. The company earns a narrow moat and clears the ethical screen, while analysts see upside to 185 dollars from the current 155.87 price. None of that is enough to generate an opportunity rating once the heavy losses and limited competitive edge are weighed.
The real risk is simple arithmetic: rapid sales growth has not yet produced profits, and any slowdown in test volumes would leave the valuation looking even more stretched. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GH trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markdown · changed$168.58-3.7%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $142. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$175.00-2.1%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $142. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$178.80+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $142. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$178.80+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $142. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $142. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$169.08+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $142. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$169.08+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $142. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown$169.08+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $142. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$169.08+4.3%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $142. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$162.09-3.7%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $142. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
