Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price612.33 USD
Fair value495.74
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-05Read Accumulation593.02+3.3% to today ✓
2026-08-05Read Markup570.97+7.2% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation454.25+34.8% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Medpace Holdings Inc holds its Accumulation at $612.33. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$612.33
Valuation
35.93 trailing · 31.71 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.15
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
5.75%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 5.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
44.23%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 44.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.51%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Clinical research firm priced past its worth
Picture a contract research outfit running drug trials across every continent. Every new medicine still needs Medpace to gather the data, yet investors are paying 537 dollars a share for work that our fair value puts at 446.
The numbers show solid execution, revenue climbing 26 percent with a 17 percent profit margin and 77 percent return on equity. Even so the forward multiple sits at 28.7 times and the shares trade 17 percent above fair value, leaving no margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none. Analysts sit on a hold with a 480 dollar median target, and the narrow moat offers little protection if growth slows.
High returns on equity look impressive until the price already bakes them in. Currency swings and trial delays sit in the background, yet the main issue remains simple overpayment for steady but not exceptional growth. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MEDP trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $444.
2026-08-05Markup · changed$570.97+25.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 25.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $444.
2026-07-18Accumulation$454.25+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $444.
2026-07-03Accumulation$454.25+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$454.25Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
