Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.26, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price18.44 USD
Fair value19.48
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation24.64-25.2% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 13% rise in 7 days
2026-10-18Read Markdown21.76-15.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-11Read Accumulation21.62-14.7% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown22.69-18.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 22% rise in 13 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Figma Inc holds its Markdown at $18.44. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days
Price at the screen
$18.44
Valuation
N/A trailing · 71.48 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
2.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 2.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
54.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 54.0% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
27.74%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 27.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
5.89%
Below 5%
5.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Figma's business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 54% of its assets, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $19.48 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 48.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.3% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +63% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $19.48, with a range of $19.48 to $22.40, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Figma's fast growth meets a steep price tag
Picture a team of designers in three time zones tweaking the same screen in real time. That is Figma's browser-based platform, and it is pulling in revenue at 46 percent a year. Yet the shares trade at 73 times forward earnings while the company posts a 124 percent negative profit margin and negative 102 percent return on equity.
We pass. The price sits 20 percent above our fair value and the narrow moat does not justify paying up for losses that keep widening. Analyst targets at 30 dollars ignore the simple fact that rapid top-line growth has not yet produced cash or profits.
Risk sits in the valuation itself. Any slowdown in design spending would leave the multiple looking even more exposed, and the current losses offer little cushion. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FIG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$21.03-2.9%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$21.65+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$21.65+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$21.65-12.1%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 12.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$24.64+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$24.64+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$24.64+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$24.64+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 13.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$21.76+0.6%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.