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The Screen · Technology · Semiconductors
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
CRDO · NASDAQ · USD · Market cap $30.1B
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd provides various high-speed connectivity solutions for optical and electrical Ethernet, and PCIe applications in the United States, Taiwan, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
160.31 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 05:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd holds its Distribution at $160.31. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 127 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 127 days
Price at the screen
$160.31
Valuation
56.45 trailing · 16.65 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
3.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
1.11%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 1.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
12.12%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 12.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
60.91%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 60.9% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +81% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Semiconductor surge masks a cyclical trap
Picture a data centre rush where every new AI rack needs faster cables. Credo rides that wave with 157% revenue growth and 35% margins, yet our fair value sits 14% below the current price. The narrow moat and 22.6 times forward earnings leave little room for the next downturn.
The business clears our ethical screen and posts a solid 34% return on equity. Still, opportunity rating stays at none because the numbers already price in perfection. Strong buy notes from nineteen analysts do not change the fact that peak-cycle earnings often look cheap on a low multiple until they are not.
Semiconductor demand swings hard. When the cycle turns, those headline margins compress fast and investors who bought at the top learn the value trap lesson again. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Cayman Islands and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CRDO trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in Cayman Islands). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Markup$230.43+13.7%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 251%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $256.
2026-07-25Markup$202.68-19.2%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 19.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 251%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $256.
2026-07-18Markup$250.81+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 251%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $256.
2026-07-03Markup$250.81+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$250.81Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
