Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in developing and commercializing therapies for chronic endocrine and neurological diseases in Illinois.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
7.78 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-16
Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. holds its Markdown at $7.78. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 81 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 81 days
Price at the screen
$7.78
Valuation
N/A trailing · 19.95 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.85
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
67.30%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 67.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
42.26%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 42.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.62%
Below 5%
Only 1.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 32.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +54% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ready glucagon for sudden sugar crashes
Imagine waking up disoriented because your blood sugar has crashed. Xeris sells a ready-to-use glucagon shot that removes the old mixing step, yet the company still posts just 4% profit margins despite 38% revenue growth. At $8.80 against a $9.32 fair value, the 6% margin of safety is wafer thin and the forward multiple sits at 22.4 times.
We see no opportunity here. The ethical screen clears, yet an unknown moat in a crowded endocrine space and single-digit profitability leave little room for error. Analysts may cluster around a $10 target, but the numbers show a business that has yet to prove it can turn rapid sales into durable cash.
Risk sits in execution and competition. A commercial-stage drug firm with slim profits can lose ground quickly if larger players improve their own rescue treatments or if reimbursement tightens. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; as a drug manufacturers - specialty & generic name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
XERS trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-17Markdown · changed$7.78-6.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-08-18Markup · changed$8.33+22.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 22.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-18Accumulation$6.79+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-03Accumulation$6.79+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$6.79Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
