Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases in the United States.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price42.38 USD
Fair value67.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution42.78-0.9% to today ✓
2026-09-14Read Markdown44.88-5.6% to today ✓
2026-08-14Read Markup47.64-11.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution44.41-4.6% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. holds its Markdown at $42.38. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 119 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-02
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 119 days
Price at the screen
$42.38
Valuation
N/A trailing · 9.50 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.56
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
2.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 2.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
12.41%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 12.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
21.77%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 21.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.84%
Below 5%
Only 1.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 3%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 2% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 58.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +47% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brain drug sales climb while profits lag
Supernus develops treatments for central nervous system conditions such as ADHD. Its revenue is rising 39 percent a year on the back of Qelbree, yet the firm still posts a negative 4 percent profit margin and a negative 3 percent return on equity. The shares trade at 11.1 times forward earnings with a 40 percent gap to our fair value, but the opportunity rating sits at none.
We pass because rapid top line growth has not translated into consistent profits or a clear competitive edge. Analyst targets cluster around 65 dollars and the ethical screen clears, yet the combination of losses, unknown moat and execution risk in specialty pharma outweighs the apparent discount.
Currency moves, regulatory setbacks or slower uptake could widen those losses further. The low multiple reflects that uncertainty rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: as a drug manufacturers - specialty & generic name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SUPN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-09-14Markdown · changed$44.88-5.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-08-14Markup · changed$47.64+7.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-07-18Distribution$44.41+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-07-03Distribution$44.41+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$44.41Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
