Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price4.75 USD
Fair value5.03
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Distribution5.31-10.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 30% rise in 9 weeks
2026-08-21Read Markup4.09+16.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Distribution4.17+13.9% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alvotech holds its Distribution at $4.75. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 128 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 128 days
Price at the screen
$4.75
Valuation
N/A trailing · 20.98 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.21
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
97.45%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 97.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.28%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.47%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Alvotech's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 97% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when ALVO's ethical verdict changes
Today ALVO does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +68% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Luxembourg and to currency swings; as a drug manufacturers - specialty & generic name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALVO trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Luxembourg). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-10-12Markup$5.78-1.7%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-10-02Markup$5.88+15.3%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-09-21Markup$5.10+24.7%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 24.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-08-21Markup · changed$4.09+18.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 18.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-21Distribution$3.46-17.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 17.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-18Distribution$4.17+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-17Distribution$4.17+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-03Distribution$4.17+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$4.17Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
