Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. holds its Markdown at $58.45. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$58.45
Valuation
149.87 trailing · 22.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 97.4
Beta
0.90
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
3.79%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 3.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.16%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 8% discount to our $63.38 fair value, weak competitive moat, 98.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
Every family chasing treatment for a rare growth disorder or adrenal shortfall ends up relying on smaller players like Eton that fill gaps left by big pharma. Revenue is climbing 40% as the firm commercialises products such as Increlex and Alkindi Sprinkle, yet it still runs at a 2% negative profit margin and negative 5% ROE. At 22.5 times forward earnings the shares sit just below our fair value of 44.93 against a 42.32 price, and the ethical screen clears cleanly.
The business model hinges on orphan-drug niches where competition stays limited for now, and four analysts carry a strong-buy consensus with a 48 median target. Weak moat leaves room for larger entrants, but the growth trajectory and positive margin of safety mark a clear opportunity versus broader sector names.
Execution risk remains high while losses persist and returns on equity stay negative. Any delay in new launches or reimbursement pressure could widen those gaps quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; as a drug manufacturers - specialty & generic name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ETON trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Markup$61.48+45.3%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 45.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 100%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-28Markup$42.32+45.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 45.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 100%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-18Markup$29.13+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 100%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 53%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-03Markup$29.13+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (97). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$29.13Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (97). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
