Framework Journal · one stock, one dated entry

Recorded 2026-07-19 · Permanent

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. logoCollegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. COLL

Clears the common standard

An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.

In plain words · Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of medicines for pain management.

The label
Markdown

read at $36.08

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. holds its Markdown at $36.08.

PHINPOOPSC
  • PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
  • INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
  • POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
  • OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
  • SCScreen · passes the values gate
  • edge confirmed
  • edge broken
  • edge forming

Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.

The investor read · the season, not the day

As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
PhaseMarkdown · caution
Quantitative stateThe statistical read favours the sellers, held for 26 days
Price$36.08
Valuation17.51 trailing · 4.80 forward price to earnings
Values screenPASS · score 70.0
Beta0.73

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Read at
$36.08
17.51 P/E · 4.80 fwd
Our fair value
$60.00
66% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$56.00
+55% to current
Target low $45.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $60.00
▲ current $36.08 · | average target

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

$63.1$40.9$18.7TODAY5y agoPROJECTIONConservative$60.00 +73%Our fair value$60.00 +73%Analyst high$60.00 +73%Analyst avg$56.00 +61%

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Current
$36.08
you are here
Conservative
$60.00
+66%
Analyst avg
$56.00
+55%
Our fair value
$60.00
+66%
Analyst high
$60.00
+66%

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.

Revenue growth8.90%
Profit margin9.41%
Debt to equity297.58
Analyst consensusBuy · 5 covering

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:

The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✓ PASSES

Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

  • Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
  • Debt load Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 79.4%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it. Divergent
  • Interest-bearing cash Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit. Fail
  • Receivables Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit. Fail
  • Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

Pain Drug Maker Shows Cheap Numbers But No Edge

Every patient counting on steady relief from chronic pain or attention issues ends up depending on small specialty firms that navigate strict rules and thin margins. Collegium posts a forward multiple of 4.8 times, 27 percent return on equity and a 66 percent gap to our fair value, yet the opportunity rating sits at none. We pass because the unknown moat and modest 9 percent revenue growth leave too little visibility on whether those returns can last.

The business clears our ethical screen, and five analysts call the shares a buy with a median target near 56 dollars. Still, the combination of single-digit profit margins and a portfolio built around one central nervous system stimulant keeps the setup too narrow for our criteria.

Regulatory shifts around controlled substances, reimbursement pressure on generics and any slip in execution could quickly compress those returns. The low multiple may simply reflect those recurring industry risks rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.

The fundamentals · plain-English read
Forward P/E4.8x
cheap for a company growing this fast
Trailing P/E17.5x
reasonably valued
Revenue growth8.9%
steady growth
Profit margin9.4%
thin but positive margins
Return on equity27.4%
an exceptional return on shareholder capital
Debt to equity2.98
heavy leverage — higher risk if revenue softens
Current ratio1.71
healthy short-term liquidity
Beta0.73
steadier than the market
Market cap$1.2B
Employees423

The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; as a drug manufacturers - specialty & generic name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Related securities · others in COLL's space worth a look

Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.

Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are

COLL trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $54. Entered 2026-07-25 · Accumulation

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

2026-07-25 Accumulation · changed $36.08 +4.2% Entry 4

The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $54.

2026-07-18 Markup $34.64 +0.0% Entry 3

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $54.

2026-07-03 Markup $34.64 +0.0% Entry 2

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.

2026-07-02 Markup $34.64 Entry 1

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

The political ledger · congressional disclosures

Disclosures naming COLL
DatePoliticianPartyTypeAmount
9 Apr2026 Scott Peters Democrat buy 50K–100K
24 Jun2026 Gil Cisneros Democrat buy 100K–250K
2026-04-13 Scott Peters Democrat Sale 250K–500K
19 May2026 Scott Peters Democrat buy 100K–250K
13 Apr2026 Scott Peters Democrat sell 250K–500K

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
PeriodPrice thenPrice returnDivs per share$1,000 becameTotal return
1 month $35.81 -3.0% · $970 -3.0%
2 months $35.47 -2.1% · $979 -2.1%
3 months $35.00 -0.8% · $992 -0.8%
6 months $48.36 -28.2% · $718 -28.2%
1 year $30.37 +14.4% · $1,144 +14.4%
2 years $33.31 +4.3% · $1,043 +4.3%
3 years $21.76 +59.6% · $1,596 +59.6%
5 years $23.37 +48.6% · $1,486 +48.6%

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever COLL does next, these words stay.

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. · COLL · Markdown · $36.08
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically

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