Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.01, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price7.43 USD
Fair value4.51
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Markup6.47+14.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup after a 33% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-21Read Markdown4.88+52.3% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 16% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Accumulation5.82+27.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-15Read Markdown5.91+25.7% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 5% slide in 11 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. holds its Markup at $7.43. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$7.43
Valuation
N/A trailing · 29.74 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.70
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
75.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 75.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.47%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.70%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Frontier Group Holdings,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 76% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $4.51 fair value estimate, 52.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 64.7% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $4.51, with a range of $3.60 to $5.19, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap seats mask a cyclical airline trap
Picture a budget flight that looks like a bargain until fuel costs spike and half the fleet sits idle. Frontier flies leisure routes across the US and Latin America, yet it posted a 10% negative profit margin and negative 92% return on equity last year. Revenue growth sits at just 9% while the forward multiple of 19.9 times earnings prices in recovery that has not arrived, and our fair value sits 23% below the current share price.
We pass because this is the classic cyclical value trap. Low multiples in airlines often mark peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the business carries no visible moat to protect margins when demand softens. Analyst consensus remains a hold with a median target of 7 dollars, offering little comfort once the cycle rolls over.
Risk sits in the sharp swings of fuel prices, leisure travel patterns and economic downturns that can turn thin profits into heavy losses overnight. The ethical screen clears, yet the numbers still show a business that burns cash in downturns without a durable edge. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ULCC trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup · changed$6.47+22.1%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 22.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5.
2026-10-28Markdown$5.30+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$5.30+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$5.30+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$5.30+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$5.30+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$5.30+8.6%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$4.88+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown · changed$4.88+0.0%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$4.88-16.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 16.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
