Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price171.57 USD
Fair value143.86
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution181.89-5.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. holds its Markdown at $171.57. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 478 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 478 days
Price at the screen
$171.57
Valuation
N/A trailing · 16.65 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.83
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Brewers
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Brewers
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Boston Beer fails the ethical screen outright
A cold Samuel Adams might taste fine after work, yet the company behind it runs straight into our ethical line. Brewers sit on the prohibited list, so we pass without hesitation. The numbers offer no reason to argue the point either, with revenue shrinking 4 percent, margins in negative territory and return on equity at minus 8 percent.
Our fair value sits at 158 dollars against a market price of 179, leaving no margin of safety and a forward multiple that offers little comfort for a business this weak. Thirteen analysts call it a hold with a higher target, but that view ignores the ethical screen that exists precisely for cases like this one.
The real risk lies in treating any alcohol producer as just another consumer name when the screen has already drawn the boundary. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SAM trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-12Distribution$168.78-8.3%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (13 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $230.
2026-08-12Distribution$184.12+1.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (13 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $230.
2026-07-18Distribution$181.89+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (13 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $230.
2026-07-03Distribution$181.89+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$181.89Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
