An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South,…
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $3.07
Ambev SA ADR holds its Markdown at $3.07.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price
$3.07
Valuation
15.35 trailing · 14.32 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.27
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$3.07
15.35 P/E · 14.32 fwd
Our fair value
$3.11
2% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$3.44
+12% to current
Target low $2.55Analyst target rangeTarget high $4.00
▲ current $3.07 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$3.07
you are here
Conservative
$2.29
-25%
Analyst avg
$3.44
+12%
Our fair value
$3.11
+1%
Analyst high
$4.00
+30%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
-0.10%
Profit margin
17.66%
Debt to equity
3.42
Analyst consensus
Hold · 10 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its excluded industry: beverages - brewers. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityExcluded industry: Beverages - BrewersFail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Brazil beer maker fails ethics test outright
Picture a Friday night in Sao Paulo where every bottle of beer moves through one dominant local brewer. Ambev sits at the centre of that trade yet we pass without hesitation because the business sits in an excluded industry. The ethical screen exists for exactly these cases.
Numbers show a narrow moat, 18 percent profit margins and 17 percent ROE at a forward multiple of 14.1 times. Revenue is flat and the shares trade below our own fair value. None of that matters once the screen has ruled the name out.
Currency swings in Latin America and modest volume growth remain real pressures even in a defensive category. The market rates the stock a hold with a three dollar target that leaves little upside. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $3. Entered 2026-07-20 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-20Distribution$3.03-6.8%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-18Distribution$3.25+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-16Distribution$3.25+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-03Distribution$3.25+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$3.25Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$3.28
-5.2%
·
$948
-5.2%
2 months
$3.19
-2.5%
·
$975
-2.5%
3 months
$2.87
+8.4%
·
$1,084
+8.4%
6 months
$2.50
+24.4%
·
$1,244
+24.4%
1 year
$2.43
+28.2%
$0.02
$1,292
+29.2%
2 years
$1.98
+57.2%
$0.18
$1,661
+66.1%
3 years
$2.71
+14.8%
$0.32
$1,267
+26.7%
5 years
$2.98
+4.3%
$0.58
$1,237
+23.7%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever ABEV does next, these words stay.
Ambev SA ADR · ABEV · Markdown · $3.07
Recorded 2026-07-27 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
