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The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
Ambev SA ADR
ABEV · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $46.9B · 39,000 employees
Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South,…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
2.98 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 2.98 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 3.08, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price2.98 USD
Fair value3.08
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-19Read Accumulation3.04-2.0% to today
2026-08-20Read Markdown3.03-1.7% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution3.25-8.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ambev SA ADR holds its Accumulation at $2.98. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 49 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 49 days
Price at the screen
$2.98
Valuation
14.90 trailing · 13.95 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.25
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Beverages - Brewers
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Beverages - Brewers
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brazil beer maker fails ethics test outright
Picture a Friday night in Sao Paulo where every bottle of beer moves through one dominant local brewer. Ambev sits at the centre of that trade yet we pass without hesitation because the business sits in an excluded industry. The ethical screen exists for exactly these cases.
Numbers show a narrow moat, 18 percent profit margins and 17 percent ROE at a forward multiple of 14.1 times. Revenue is flat and the shares trade below our own fair value. None of that matters once the screen has ruled the name out.
Currency swings in Latin America and modest volume growth remain real pressures even in a defensive category. The market rates the stock a hold with a three dollar target that leaves little upside. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ABEV trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-19Accumulation · changed$3.04+0.3%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-08-20Markdown · changed$3.03+0.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-20Distribution$3.03-6.8%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-18Distribution$3.25+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-16Distribution$3.25+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-03Distribution$3.25+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$3.25Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
