NAS10026,946−5.25%S&P7,428−3.39%GOLD$4,132+1.46%BTC$75,633−5.94%VIX23.84+43.53%latest tape · as of 18:03 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
Constellation Brands
STZ · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $22.9B · 9,400 employees
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
145.49 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 18:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price145.49 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.44, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price145.49 USD
Fair value158.18
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Markup135.33+7.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 20% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-11Read Accumulation112.92+28.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown112.92+28.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 7% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-14Read Distribution121.55+19.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Constellation Brands holds its Markup at $145.49. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 57 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 57 days
Price at the screen
$145.49
Valuation
12.12 trailing · 11.19 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.43
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Distillers & Vintners
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Constellation Brands does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in alcohol, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today STZ does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 13% discount to our $158.18 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 6.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.0% discount to the base estimate.
Reach for a Corona in any bar and Constellation Brands has already taken its cut. The business sits on a moderate moat, 20 percent profit margins and 24 percent ROE, yet we pass without hesitation.
The ethical screen flags the company on business activity grounds, and that single failure overrides every other number. Revenue is already falling 3 percent, the shares trade at just 10.7 times forward earnings, and even the analyst crowd sees only modest upside from here.
A cyclical consumer staple can look cheap right before volumes keep sliding, and an ethical fail removes any margin for debate. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
STZ trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markup · changed$135.33+3.0%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151.
2026-10-25Accumulation$131.35+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151.
2026-10-18Accumulation$131.35+16.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 16.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $154.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$112.92-7.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $163. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $171.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (22 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $178.
2026-07-18Distribution$140.91+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (22 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $178.
2026-07-03Distribution$140.91+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$140.91Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
