2026-10-25
RXO, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Trucking
RXO, Inc.
RXO · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.7B · 6,906 employees
RXO, Inc.
Not yet scored27.88 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price27.88 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkdown, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.11)
- Last reviewed5 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $17.10 to $24.92, base estimate $21.67 (screen dated 2026-11-05).
- Trend Markdown
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 1.11, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price27.88 USD
Fair value21.67
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markdown28.40-1.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 33% rise in 4 weeks
2026-10-11Read Markup21.36+30.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-09-12Read Markdown22.19+25.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
2026-08-12Read Distribution21.70+28.5% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 23% slide in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markdown label.
RXO, Inc. holds its Markdown at $27.88. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 19 days.
| Phase | Markdown · caution |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 19 days |
| Price at the screen | $27.88 |
| Valuation | N/A trailing · 42.60 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.85 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 20.45% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 20.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 37.93% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 37.9% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
RXO, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
RXO, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 20%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $21.67 fair value estimate, 31.70% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 28.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $21.67, with a range of $17.10 to $24.92, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsFreight broker priced well above its broken numbers
Every load a shipper needs moved still relies on someone matching trucks to freight, and RXO sits in that middle seat. Yet the shares trade at 54.8 times forward earnings while revenue shrinks 1 percent, margins sit at minus 2 percent and return on equity is minus 7 percent. With fair value at 15.41 against a 29.29 price, the gap leaves no margin of safety and earns an opportunity rating of none.
We pass because the market already prices in a recovery the results refuse to show. Seventeen analysts cluster around a 26 target that still sits below the current quote, and an unknown moat offers no protection in a business that is essentially a service spread. The ethical screen clears, but valuation alone is enough to walk away.
Cyclical trucking exposes any broker to volume swings and rate collapses that can erase thin spreads for years. Negative earnings leave little room for error if freight demand stays soft. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 42.6xpriced for continued growth |
| EPS, trailing | -0.52 |
| EPS, forward | 0.67 |
| Revenue growth | +31.7%strong top-line growth |
| Profit margin | -1.3%currently unprofitable |
| Return on equity | -5.7%not currently earning a positive return on equity |
| FCF yield | -0.15% |
| Debt to equity | 0.48minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 1.28adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 1.85much more volatile than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.19% |
| 52-week range | 10.43 - 29.90 |
| Market cap | $4.7B |
| Employees | 6,906 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeRXO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05
Markdown · changed $28.40
-1.2% Entry 11
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-10-29
Markup $28.75
+0.3% Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Markup $28.67
-1.3% Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 41% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-10-18
Markup $29.06
+36.0% Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 36.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-10-11
Markup · changed $21.36
+0.0% Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-10-02
Markdown $21.36
-3.7% Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-09-12
Markdown · changed $22.19
+2.3% Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-08-12
Distribution · changed $21.70
-23.5% Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 23.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-18
Markup $28.35
+0.0% Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-03
Markup $28.35
+0.0% Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- RXO’s earnings still coming out, had solid profitable quarter Yahoo Finance · 8d ago
- RXO (NYSE:RXO) exceeds Q3 2026 expectations Yahoo Finance · 8d ago
- RXO (RXO) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say Yahoo Finance · 8d ago
- RXO (RXO) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates Yahoo Finance · 8d ago
- RXO: Q3 Earnings Snapshot Yahoo Finance · 8d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $20.70 | +38.8% | · | $1,388 | +38.8% |
| 2 months | $16.06 | +79.0% | · | $1,790 | +79.0% |
| 3 months | $12.09 | +137.7% | · | $2,377 | +137.7% |
| 6 months | $15.51 | +85.3% | · | $1,853 | +85.3% |
| 1 year | $16.50 | +74.2% | · | $1,742 | +74.2% |
| 2 years | $20.41 | +40.8% | · | $1,408 | +40.8% |
| 3 years | $21.88 | +31.4% | · | $1,314 | +31.4% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever RXO does next, these words stay.
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