Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.46, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price150.67 USD
Fair value200.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-03Read Distribution149.65+0.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution
2026-10-11Read Accumulation155.79-3.3% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown150.55+0.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-09-04Read Distribution148.77+1.3% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 6% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. holds its Distribution at $150.67. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 45 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 45 days
Price at the screen
$150.67
Valuation
18.24 trailing · 13.32 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.64
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
18.98%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 19.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.76%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.26%
Below 5%
Only 1.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Grand Canyon Education, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 11%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 25% discount to our $200.00 fair value, 6.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 24.7% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $200.00, with a range of $169.65 to $282.75, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Education Services Firm Shows Strong Returns But We Pass
Every student signing into an online degree course depends on unseen systems for enrolment, payments and support that keep the university running. Grand Canyon Education supplies exactly those services across technology platforms and academic administration. The business delivers 7% revenue growth, 20% profit margins and 30% return on equity at a forward multiple of 12.6 times, with our fair value implying a 51% margin of safety and a clean ethical screen.
Those figures look attractive on paper, yet the opportunity rating stays at none. The moat remains unknown, analyst coverage is thin and the sector carries ongoing regulatory scrutiny that can shift quickly. Price sits at 140 dollars against a median target of 200 dollars, but absence of a clear edge keeps us on the sidelines.
Risk sits in potential policy changes around for-profit education and the lack of visibility on durable competitive advantage. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LOPE trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Distribution$148.73-0.6%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$147.88+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$147.88+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$147.88-4.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$154.17+0.1%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$153.97-4.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$160.36+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$160.36-0.7%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214.
2026-10-18Accumulation$161.43+3.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
