National Beverage Corp., through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, markets, and sells a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks in the United States and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
32.24 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-04
Screened 2026-09-04 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
National Beverage Corp. holds its Distribution at $32.24. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$32.24
Valuation
16.45 trailing · 15.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: alcohol
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: alcohol
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.2% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
National Beverage trips the ethical screen hard
Every time a shopper reaches for a sparkling water or energy drink at the corner store, the transaction looks simple enough. National Beverage runs the operation behind those shelves, yet the business fails our ethical screen outright because of a prohibited alcohol link in its sector. That single red flag ends any further look.
The numbers do not help the case either. Revenue is already shrinking 5 percent, the shares trade above our fair value with negative margin of safety, and only one analyst even bothers with a sell rating. High ROE of 34 percent cannot mask the absence of growth or the ethical block.
Risk sits in plain sight: once an ethical screen is triggered there is no workaround, and the weak top-line trend only adds to the reasons to stay away. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FIZZ trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-10Accumulation$32.24+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-09Accumulation$32.24+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-08Accumulation$32.24+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Accumulation$32.24+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-04Markdown$31.48+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-03Markdown · changed$31.48+0.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-29Accumulation$31.48+1.3%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-28Accumulation$31.07-15.9%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 15.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-18Accumulation$36.94+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
