Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 19 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. holds its Distribution at $51.10. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 41 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 41 days
Price at the screen
$51.10
Valuation
28.23 trailing · 21.84 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.74
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: alcohol
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: alcohol
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 29.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +66% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Coconut water brand fails ethics and value test
Every time someone reaches for a coconut water after a workout, the brand behind it looks like an easy winner on growth. Vita Coco is delivering 37% revenue growth and a 26% return on equity with 13% profit margins, yet the shares trade at 35 times forward earnings with a negative 20% margin of safety against our fair value. We pass for two clear reasons that have nothing to do with whether the product sells.
First, the price already prices in perfection while the numbers show an expensive multiple for a consumer defensive name. Second, the position fails our ethical screen outright because of the sector flag. This is exactly what the screen is for.
Risk sits with sustained premium valuation in a category where tastes can shift quickly and input costs remain volatile. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
COCO trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 53% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 134%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-25Markup$73.18-9.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 53% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 134%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-18Markup$80.90+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 53% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 134%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-03Markup$80.90+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$80.90Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
