Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.09, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price63.63 USD
Fair value63.15
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Markup56.55+12.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-10-02Read Markdown56.55+12.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 11% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-25Read Distribution63.36+0.4% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 22% slide in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup80.90-21.3% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. holds its Markup at $63.63. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$63.63
Valuation
30.15 trailing · 26.35 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.75
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: alcohol
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: alcohol
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The Vita Coco Company, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in alcohol, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today COCO does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $63.15 fair value estimate, 33.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $63.15, with a range of $58.50 to $72.62, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Coconut water brand fails ethics and value test
Every time someone reaches for a coconut water after a workout, the brand behind it looks like an easy winner on growth. Vita Coco is delivering 37% revenue growth and a 26% return on equity with 13% profit margins, yet the shares trade at 35 times forward earnings with a negative 20% margin of safety against our fair value. We pass for two clear reasons that have nothing to do with whether the product sells.
First, the price already prices in perfection while the numbers show an expensive multiple for a consumer defensive name. Second, the position fails our ethical screen outright because of the sector flag. This is exactly what the screen is for.
Risk sits with sustained premium valuation in a category where tastes can shift quickly and input costs remain volatile. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
COCO trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup$65.47+15.8%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 134%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-10-29Markup$56.53-4.3%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 134%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-10-22Markup$59.08+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 134%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markup$59.08+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 134%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markup$59.08+2.4%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 134%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markup$57.67+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 134%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markup$57.67+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 53% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 134%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markup$57.67+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 53% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 134%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markup$57.67-1.2%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 53% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 134%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markup$58.39+3.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 53% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 134%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
