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The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Ellington Financial Inc.
EFC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.5B · 500 employees
Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
11.49 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 14:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price11.49 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.03, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price11.49 USD
Fair value16.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Distribution11.34+1.3% to today Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since October
2026-10-31Read Markup11.41+0.7% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after an 8% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-11Read Distribution12.37-7.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Markdown12.37-7.1% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ellington Financial Inc. holds its Distribution at $11.49. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 212 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 212 days
Price at the screen
$11.49
Valuation
7.27 trailing · 5.93 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.97
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ellington Financial does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: mortgage, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today EFC does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 26% discount to our $16.00 fair value, 33.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 28.2% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $16.00, with a range of $16.00 to $23.70, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage assets trade cheap until ethics intervene
Picture a fund scooping up US home loans and packaging the cash flows for investors. Ellington Financial does exactly that across mortgage and consumer debt, posting 76% revenue growth and a 53% profit margin while shares sit at a 7 times forward earnings multiple with an 18% gap to our fair value.
We pass because the business fails our ethical screen outright on mortgage exposure. Low multiples on cyclical earnings often signal peak-cycle traps rather than bargains, and here the ethical block removes any case for further review despite the analyst buy rating and 12% ROE.
Risk sits in housing cycles, interest rate swings and leverage that can erase book value quickly when credit conditions tighten. The screen exists to keep us out of these names before the numbers turn. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EFC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markup$11.41+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$11.41+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup$11.41+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup · changed$11.41-2.5%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$11.70+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Distribution$11.70+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$11.70+0.1%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$11.69+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-10-18Distribution$11.69-5.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
