2026-10-25
Covenant Logistics Group, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 02:02 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Trucking
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
CVLG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $755M · 2,900 employees
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States.
Not yet scored31.55 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 02:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price31.55 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
- Our regime readDistribution, as of 7 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.11)
- Last reviewed6 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $41.25 to $64.74, base estimate $52.50 (screen dated 2026-11-06).
- Trend Distribution
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 1.11, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price31.55 USD
Fair value52.50
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup33.88-6.9% to today Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-10-02Read Markdown33.88-6.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown while volume still accumulates
2026-08-26Read Distribution34.67-9.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 24% slide in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup45.45-30.6% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its distribution label.
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. holds its Distribution at $31.55. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 45 days.
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 45 days |
| Price at the screen | $31.55 |
| Valuation | 2,977.00 trailing · 10.83 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.40 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 32.39% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 32.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 14.99% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 15.0% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Covenant Logistics Group, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Covenant Logistics Group, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 32%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 38% discount to our $52.50 fair value, 9.90% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 39.9% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +58% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $52.50, with a range of $41.25 to $64.74, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsTrucking growth fails to reach the bottom line
Covenant moves freight across dedicated routes and warehouses for US shippers, yet the numbers show revenue climbing 14 percent while profit margins sit at zero and return on equity barely registers at 1 percent. Analysts see a buy at a forward multiple of 16.5 times, but the business generates no earnings to support that valuation or any margin of safety around the current price.
We pass because the combination of thin returns and an unknown competitive edge leaves little room for durable value creation. Ethical screens clear the name, yet the operating reality does not.
Cyclical trucking demand can swing quickly with fuel costs and freight volumes, and a zero profit margin offers no buffer when those cycles turn. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 10.8xfairly priced for its growth rate |
| Trailing P/E | 2,977.0xexpensive: the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| EPS, trailing | 0.01 |
| EPS, forward | 2.75 |
| Revenue growth | +9.9%steady growth |
| Profit margin | 0.3%barely profitable |
| Return on equity | 0.2%a modest return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | -5.93% |
| Dividend yield | 62.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.79moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 1.14adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 1.40moves a little more than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.08% |
| 52-week range | 18.00 - 49.88 |
| Market cap | $755M |
| Employees | 2,900 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeCVLG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05
Markup · changed $33.88
+16.1% Entry 17
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-10-29
Markdown $29.19
-1.9% Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Markdown $29.77
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Markdown $29.77
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Markdown $29.77
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Markdown $29.77
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24
Markdown $29.77
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23
Markdown $29.77
-3.4% Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22
Markdown $30.81
+0.0% Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21
Markdown $30.81
-3.6% Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 92%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- 3 Transport Stocks To Watch If Fuel Costs Squeeze Southeast Logistics Yahoo Finance · 30d ago
- Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. Announces Timing of Third Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call Yahoo Finance · 2 Oct 2026
- Diesel Hits Record High, Driver Pay Up 50% Yahoo Finance · 29 Sep 2026
- The Freight Market is Healthier Than You Think Yahoo Finance · 29 Sep 2026
- 3 Stocks Under $50 We’re Skeptical Of Yahoo Finance · 25 Sep 2026
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $32.55 | +36.5% | $0.07 | $1,368 | +36.8% |
| 2 months | $28.39 | +56.5% | $0.07 | $1,568 | +56.8% |
| 3 months | $24.59 | +80.7% | $0.07 | $1,810 | +81.0% |
| 6 months | $23.38 | +90.1% | $0.14 | $1,907 | +90.7% |
| 1 year | $23.13 | +92.1% | $0.28 | $1,933 | +93.3% |
| 2 years | $23.85 | +86.3% | $0.53 | $1,886 | +88.6% |
| 3 years | $19.30 | +130.3% | $0.75 | $2,342 | +134.2% |
| 5 years | $10.73 | +314.4% | $1.00 | $4,237 | +323.7% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever CVLG does next, these words stay.
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