NAS10027,087+1.72%S&P7,401+0.65%GOLD$4,073−1.00%BTC$75,828−0.15%VIX24.55−12.88%latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services
Avis Budget Group, Inc.
CAR · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $4.2B · 17,000 employees
Avis Budget Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides car and truck rentals, car sharing, and ancillary products and services to businesses and consumers in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, A…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
120.44 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price120.44 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.76, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price120.44 USD
Fair value77.46
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Accumulation107.99+11.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 5% rise in 5 days
2026-10-27Read Markdown102.45+17.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-21Read Distribution102.45+17.6% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Markdown106.12+13.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 43% slide in 13 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Avis Budget Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $120.44. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 81 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 81 days
Price at the screen
$120.44
Valuation
N/A trailing · 27.02 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.03
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
91.36%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 91.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.47%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Avis Budget Group,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 91% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $77.46 fair value estimate.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 55.5% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $77.46, with a range of $77.46 to $89.08, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Car rentals cost more than they are worth
Picture a business that hands you the keys to a hire car in dozens of countries yet is losing six pence on every pound of revenue. Avis Budget trades at one hundred and sixty dollars against a fair value nearer one hundred and fifteen, a margin of safety that has flipped negative. With revenue barely growing at four percent and a forward multiple of nineteen times, the shares sit well above analyst targets and offer no compelling case to own them.
The combination of slim growth, negative margins and an unknown competitive edge leaves little room for upside. Consensus among seven analysts sits at a hold with a median price target of one hundred and forty dollars, underscoring the lack of conviction. Ethical screens are cleared, yet that alone does not turn a structurally challenged rental operation into an attractive holding.
Cyclical demand for cars and trucks can swing sharply with fuel prices, travel patterns and economic mood, so today's earnings picture may already reflect peak conditions rather than a durable floor. Valuation risk remains the dominant concern here. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CAR trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Accumulation$107.99+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $127. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$107.99+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $127. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $127. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$101.74+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $127. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$101.74+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $127. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown$101.74-0.7%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $127. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$102.45+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $127. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown · changed$102.45+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $127. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $127.
2026-10-14Markdown$105.98-0.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $127.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
