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The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
ARR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.3B
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
16.35 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-07
Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. holds its Markdown at $16.35. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$16.35
Valuation
3.71 trailing · 5.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.34
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage REITs Look Cheap But Ethics Block Us
Picture a homeowner in Florida whose monthly payment gets sliced up and sold as a bond. ARMOUR Residential REIT sits in the middle of that chain, buying government-backed mortgage securities for an 88% profit margin and 20% return on equity. The numbers look attractive on a 5.6 times forward earnings multiple with a 16% gap to stated fair value, yet we pass outright because the business sits in a sector our ethical screen rejects on principle.
The low multiple and analyst buy ratings reflect a classic mortgage REIT profile that can deliver high yields when rates cooperate. However, these vehicles are inherently cyclical, exposed to interest-rate swings and housing-market turns that can turn peak earnings into sharp reversals without warning.
Risk sits in the ethical failure plus leverage and prepayment volatility that can erode book value quickly. The opportunity rating stays at none for these reasons. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ARR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-21Distribution$16.61-2.9%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-18Distribution$17.10+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-17Distribution$17.10+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-03Distribution$17.10+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$17.10Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
