Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price1.79 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution5.21-65.6% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. holds its Distribution at $1.79. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$1.79
Valuation
48.22 trailing · 8.13 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.12
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Arbor Realty Trust, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: mortgage, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 3.66x the price, above our 2.00x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage REITs fail ethics before numbers speak
Picture a fund manager packaging loans on apartment blocks and rental homes, routing cash through structures that traditional banks sidestep. Arbor Realty Trust operates right in that mortgage niche, which trips our ethical screen outright. We pass for that reason alone, regardless of the apparent discount to fair value.
The business shows a forward multiple of 8.5 times earnings, yet revenue is shrinking 10 percent and return on equity sits at just 4 percent. Profit margins hold at 22 percent, but four analysts rate the shares a hold with a median target only modestly above the current price. These figures do not overcome the sector prohibition.
Interest-rate swings and credit cycles can turn thin margins quickly, and low returns on equity already flag limited resilience. The ethical block remains the decisive factor here.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ABR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-30Distribution$2.88+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Distribution$2.88+2.9%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$2.80+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$2.80+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Distribution$2.80+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$2.80+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$2.80+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$2.80+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$2.80-35.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 35.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-10-11Distribution$4.34+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $8.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.