Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Welltower holds its Markdown at $237.25. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$237.25
Valuation
106.87 trailing · 74.61 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 84.2
Beta
0.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
31.77%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 31.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
2.69%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.01%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $155.69 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 39.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 34.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Housing for Seniors, High-Priced, Ethical Pass
Picture this: seniors in the U.S., U.K., and Canada seeking a comfortable home in their golden years, that's where Welltower comes in. They're the landlords of over 2,000 communities designed for aging seniors, sitting right at the heart of the 'silver economy'. Why it stands out is a mix of demographic trends and ethical alignment; they've passed our ethical screen with flying colors and are poised to benefit from an aging population, a clear growth narrative.
However, the numbers are painting a different picture. Despite a robust revenue growth of 39%, the stock is priced at a forward P/E of 73.5x, which seems steep when considering a 12% profit margin and a lackluster ROE of just 4%. This high valuation, combined with a narrow moat, suggests that the market might be overestimating Welltower's long-term potential.
The risk here is multifaceted. With a stock price of $237.40 trading significantly above our fair value estimate of $155.84, there's a significant margin of safety concern, indicating the stock is overvalued by -34%. The consensus rating from 22 analysts is a 'buy' with a median target of $260, which seems detached from the stock's current exorbitant valuation. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WELL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $235.
2026-07-27Markup$252.07+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $235. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$252.07+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $235. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$252.07+3.6%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $235. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$243.25+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $235. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$243.25+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $235. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$243.25+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $235. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$243.25+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $235. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$243.25+17.6%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $235. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$206.93+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $235.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
