Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.33, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price86.80 USD
Fair value56.82
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markup84.86+2.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-10-11Read Distribution87.04-0.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Markdown87.04-0.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-16Read Accumulation89.38-2.9% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation while volume is distributing
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ventas holds its Markup at $86.80. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 51 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 51 days
Price at the screen
$86.80
Valuation
157.15 trailing · 107.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.74
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.60%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.59%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.39%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ventas's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 48% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $56.82 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 21.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 33.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aging population bet meets stretched numbers
Picture a landlord banking on longer lives yet charging tenants more than the properties can support. Ventas fails our screen outright on debt levels and carries a forward multiple of 113.5 times earnings despite revenue growth of 22 percent, a profit margin of just 4 percent and return on equity at 2 percent. The market prices it near our calculated fair value of 55.52 against a current 96.10, leaving a 42 percent shortfall.
We pass because the weak moat and ethical debt failure outweigh any longevity tailwind. Twenty two analysts may still say buy with a median target of 98, yet the numbers show thin cash returns and heavy leverage that our screen rejects outright.
High debt leaves little room if interest rates stay firm or occupancy slips in healthcare facilities. Peak-cycle multiples on low returns often signal value traps rather than bargains. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VTR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-27Markup$84.86+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup · changed$84.86+0.0%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$84.86+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$84.86+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$84.86+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$84.86+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$84.86+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Distribution$84.86+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$84.86-2.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
