Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
11.45 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 16:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price11.45 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Fair valueUnder review: our model's value is 1.38x the price, above our 1.35x limit.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.58, read 2026-11-04
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price11.45 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Distribution11.39+0.5% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 13% slide in 2 weeks
2026-10-18Read Markdown13.02-12.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Distribution13.61-15.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 13% slide in 2 weeks
2026-09-16Read Markup15.56-26.4% to today Distribution gives way to Markup while volume is distributing
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Vale S.A. holds its Markdown at $11.45. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 70 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 70 days
Price at the screen
$11.45
Valuation
22.36 trailing · 5.99 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.70
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity 5.9%
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.20%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
8.52%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.05%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
5.92%
Below 5%
5.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Vale clears the business-activity screen, and its debt is inside the line. Where it falls short is income purity: around 6% of its income right now is non-operating interest income, against a roughly 5% ceiling, so it does not pass. That reflects what it earns today, not the business itself, and it could clear the screen if its operating revenue grows and the interest share falls.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today VALE does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 1.38x the price, above our 1.35x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Iron ore cycles mask a value trap
Every skyscraper or battery that needs steel or nickel eventually traces back to Vale's mines in Brazil. Yet we pass despite the 7.1 times forward earnings and a 22 percent gap to our fair value. The business grows revenue at just 3 percent, earns a 7 percent return on equity, and fails the ethical screen outright on revenue purity.
This is the classic cyclical trap. A low multiple on peak commodity earnings often signals the top of the cycle rather than a bargain. Unknown moat and single-digit margins leave little room when iron ore prices turn, which they always do.
Analysts still rate it a buy with an 18 dollar median target, but the ethical failure and structural growth limits outweigh any apparent discount. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VALE trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-25Markdown$13.02+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$13.02-4.3%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-11Distribution$13.61+0.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-09-16Markup · changed$15.56+4.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-08-16Distribution$14.94-4.9%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Distribution$15.71+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-03Distribution$15.71+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$15.71Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.