NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,406+0.14%BTC$77,436VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 11:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Credit Services
PayPal
PYPL · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $44.6B · 23,800 employees
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
52.17 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
PayPal holds its Distribution at $52.17. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$52.17
Valuation
9.86 trailing · 9.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.29
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 36% discount to our $70.71 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 4.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 32 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Payments Network Fails Its Own Ethical Test
Shoppers tap PayPal to settle a dinner bill or a freelance invoice in seconds. We pass on the name outright. The business activity screen blocks any further look, no matter what the spreadsheet shows.
Revenue grows at just 7 percent, the forward multiple sits at 9.8 times and margins reach 15 percent with a 25 percent return on equity. The moat is only moderate and 33 analysts carry a hold rating with a median target of $48. None of that moves the needle once the ethical filter has already ruled the company out.
Even the slim gap to our own $60 fair value offers no cover. The screen exists for exactly these cases and leaves no room to argue around it. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PYPL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $57.
2026-08-09Markup · changed$57.93+40.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 40.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-18Markdown$41.29+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-03Markdown$41.29+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$41.29Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
