Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Nucor holds its Distribution at $256.40. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 246 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 246 days
Price at the screen
$256.40
Valuation
20.46 trailing · 13.46 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 87.2
Beta
1.88
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
20.29%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 20.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.25%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.28%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.34%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $223.72 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 23.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 12.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steel output surges yet cycle warns of traps
Picture a blast furnace running flat out as building projects multiply, then idling when rates rise and orders vanish. Nucor shows that rhythm right now, with revenue up 21 percent and a forward multiple of 13.6 times that looks undemanding on paper.
The business clears our ethical screen and posts a 12 percent return on equity plus 7 percent margins, numbers that support an opportunity rating even though our fair value sits 11 percent below the current price. Narrow moat and buy-rated analyst targets at 274 add to the surface appeal.
Yet steel is a classic cyclical trade where peak earnings often coincide with the lowest multiples. Investors buying here risk a value trap once demand normalises. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NUE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$274.74+8.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243.
2026-07-18Accumulation$254.39+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243.
2026-07-03Accumulation$254.39+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$254.39Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.