Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.05, read 2026-10-27
Ethical passes the values gate
Price246.80 USD
Fair value224.54
Ethical score86.6/100
RatingQUALITY, FULLY VALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Accumulation240.76+2.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-17Read Markdown240.76+2.5% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-14Read Accumulation238.38+3.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown230.39+7.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Steel Dynamics holds its Accumulation at $246.80. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 25 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 25 days
Price at the screen
$246.80
Valuation
21.63 trailing · 11.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 86.6
Beta
1.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.65%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.94%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.20%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Steel Dynamics clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 26%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads QUALITY, FULLY VALUED: it trades above our $224.54 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 33.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steel supplier riding a fragile boom
When a new warehouse or car plant opens, the steel has to come from somewhere. Steel Dynamics is supplying plenty of it right now, with revenue up 19 percent and a 15 percent return on equity.
It clears the ethical screen and sits on the opportunity list at 12.5 times forward earnings. Analysts see further upside toward 268, yet the shares already trade above our fair value with only a narrow moat.
The bigger worry is the cycle. In steel, a low multiple often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain, and demand can drop fast when construction or autos slow.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
STLD trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241.
2026-10-19Markdown$240.76+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$240.76+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markdown · changed$240.76+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Accumulation$240.76+1.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Accumulation$238.38+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Markdown$238.38+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Markdown$238.38+3.5%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$230.39-4.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
