Screened 2026-09-03 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Ternium SA ADR holds its Accumulation at $57.98. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 20 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-03
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 20 days
Price at the screen
$57.98
Valuation
16.11 trailing · 7.58 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.16
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
11.03%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 11.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.78%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.98%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.52%
Below 5%
Only 1.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steel Looks Cheap Until The Cycle Turns
Picture a steel mill running flat out in a boom year, only to watch orders vanish when construction slows and car plants cut shifts. Ternium sits in exactly that spot, churning out slabs and plates across Mexico and Brazil with zero revenue growth and a 4% profit margin that leaves little room for error.
We pass because the 6.8 times forward earnings and 24% gap to analyst targets mask a classic cyclical trap. Narrow moat, 3% return on equity and flat sales tell us peak earnings are already in the price. When volumes drop the multiple will not stay low for long.
Currency swings, trade tariffs and sudden capacity gluts add real downside that the numbers do not capture. The ethical screen clears but the business does not clear our bar. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Luxembourg and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TX trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Luxembourg). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 18.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-08-15Markup$49.11-0.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-07-18Markup$49.55+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-07-03Markup$49.55+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$49.55Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
