Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.58, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price48.64 USD
Fair value64.81
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Distribution54.06-10.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 2 weeks
2026-10-14Read Accumulation57.94-16.1% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown56.43-13.8% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown
2026-09-15Read Accumulation57.98-16.1% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 17% rise in 11 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ternium SAADR holds its Distribution at $48.64. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 85 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 85 days
Price at the screen
$48.64
Valuation
15.99 trailing · 7.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.10
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
11.03%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 11.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.78%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.98%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.52%
Below 5%
Only 1.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Ternium clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 11%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 2% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when TX's ethical verdict changes
Today TX passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 25% discount to our $64.81 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 10.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 24.9% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $64.81, with a range of $48.47 to $77.82, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steel Looks Cheap Until The Cycle Turns
Picture a steel mill running flat out in a boom year, only to watch orders vanish when construction slows and car plants cut shifts. Ternium sits in exactly that spot, churning out slabs and plates across Mexico and Brazil with zero revenue growth and a 4% profit margin that leaves little room for error.
We pass because the 6.8 times forward earnings and 24% gap to analyst targets mask a classic cyclical trap. Narrow moat, 3% return on equity and flat sales tell us peak earnings are already in the price. When volumes drop the multiple will not stay low for long.
Currency swings, trade tariffs and sudden capacity gluts add real downside that the numbers do not capture. The ethical screen clears but the business does not clear our bar. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Luxembourg and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TX trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Luxembourg). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Distribution$51.65-4.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $53.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-10-21Accumulation$56.88-1.8%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $53.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$56.43-2.7%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $53.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 18.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-08-15Markup$49.11-0.9%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-07-18Markup$49.55+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-07-03Markup$49.55+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$49.55Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
