Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price8.99 USD
Fair value17.98
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-05Read Distribution12.39-27.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown12.95-30.6% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
MINISO Group Holding Limited holds its Markdown at $8.99. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 169 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 169 days
Price at the screen
$8.99
Valuation
14.74 trailing · 6.02 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.09
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
256.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 256.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
166.69%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 166.7% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +71% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap shelves hide a debt problem
Walk into a MINISO store and the low prices feel clever, almost too good to be true for everyday gadgets and home goods. The business is growing revenue at 28 percent, turning a 9 percent profit margin and delivering 19 percent return on equity, all at a forward multiple of just 7.6 times. Yet the numbers sit unused because the company fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio.
We pass for that single reason. A moderate moat and a wide gap to our fair value of 23.82 do not override the debt issue, even when fifteen analysts point to a 20 dollar median target. Consumer cyclical names often look this inexpensive precisely when earnings sit near a peak, and low multiples can simply mark the start of the next downturn rather than a bargain.
The real risk sits in how quickly margins and returns could compress if consumer spending slows or if higher interest costs eat into the cash flow that currently supports the balance sheet. Currency swings and store expansion delays add further pressure in a sector where debt already raises the stakes.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MNSO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-05Distribution$9.56-22.8%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 22.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-18Markdown$12.95+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-03Markdown$12.95+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$12.95Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
