NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,417−0.18%BTC$81,133−0.12%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 20 Sep
The Screen · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Lynas Rare Earths Limited
LYSDY · OQX · USD · Market cap $10.5B
Lynas Rare Earths Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction, and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price10.45 USD
Fair value10.01
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingFAIR VALUE
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-04Read Accumulation12.00-12.9% to today
2026-08-05Read Distribution10.06+3.9% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup12.57-16.9% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Lynas Rare Earths Limited holds its Markdown at $10.45. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 96 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 96 days
Price at the screen
$10.45
Valuation
65.31 trailing · 24.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.70
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
1.47%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 1.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
7.13%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads FAIR VALUE: it trades above our $10.01 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 86.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +57% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rare earths boom meets China sized swings
Rare earths sit at the heart of EVs, wind turbines and defence kit, yet supply still hinges on one dominant player and prices lurch with policy shifts. Lynas shows 63 percent revenue growth and clears the ethical screen, yet trades right at our fair value estimate with a 27.5 times forward multiple, 12 percent margins and just 3 percent return on equity.
A weak moat leaves it exposed to new entrants and substitution, while the industry cycle means today's growth can vanish when demand cools or Chinese output rises. Low returns on equity already hint that strong top line gains are not translating into durable profits.
In cyclical miners a mid-cycle multiple rarely signals a bargain; it often flags peak earnings that will compress when the cycle turns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Australia and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LYSDY trades on OQX (the company is based in Australia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 19.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 90%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $20.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 20.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 90%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-18Markup$12.57+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 90%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-03Markup$12.57+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$12.57Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
