Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.40, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price7.42 USD
Fair value4.10Our model only; the analyst targets sit too far from the price to cross-check it.
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-15Read Markdown15.56-52.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after an 11% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-15Read Accumulation17.41-57.4% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 21% slide in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup21.99-66.3% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
USA Rare Earth, Inc. holds its Markdown at $7.42. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 52 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 52 days
Price at the screen
$7.42
Valuation
N/A trailing · 273.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.82
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.44%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
52.33%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 52.3% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
100.00%
Below 5%
100.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
USA Rare Earth,'s business is fine, but its receivables are about 52% of its assets, just over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when USAR's ethical verdict changes
Today USAR does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our model only; the analyst targets sit too far from the price to cross-check it.
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $4.10 fair value estimate.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 81.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets. The average target sits +358% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $4.10, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rare Earth Hopes Clash With Zero Profits
Picture a miner chasing the elements that go into magnets for electric cars and wind turbines, yet this one is still posting no profits and a negative return on equity. The market prices it with a forward multiple above 469 times earnings while the opportunity rating sits at none, even though a margin of safety calculation points to 28 percent upside. In a cyclical business like this the low multiple that never appears is usually a warning that peak earnings have already passed.
We pass because the numbers do not support a compelling case once the cycle lens is applied. Profit margins sit at zero, return on equity is deeply negative, and the moat remains unknown despite the ethical screen clearing. Analyst targets may sit higher, yet those figures ignore how quickly commodity prices and permitting delays can erase any apparent discount.
The real risks sit in the boom-bust nature of rare earth prices, execution on new mines, and heavy exposure to policy shifts on both sides of the Pacific. Currency moves and capital intensity add further volatility that a pre-profit balance sheet cannot easily absorb. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
USAR trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06Markdown$7.42-9.5%Entry 18
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-05Markdown$8.20-5.9%Entry 17
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Markdown$8.71-9.5%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markdown$9.62+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markdown$9.62+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markdown$9.62+3.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$9.33+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$9.33+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown$9.33-7.3%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$10.06-2.5%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $37.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
