2026-10-25
MP Materials clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 22:21 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
MP Materials Corp
MP · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $6.8B · 998 employees
MP Materials Corp., together with its subsidiaries, produces rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere.
Not yet scored38.30 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 22:21 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price38.30 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.05)
- Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (6 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 38.30 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 36.04, over the last year.
- Trend Markdown
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 1.05, read 2026-10-28
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price38.30 USD
Fair value36.04
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown50.00-23.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 9% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-05Read Accumulation54.70-30.0% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 31% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-05Read Distribution41.66-8.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 28% slide in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup57.55-33.4% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markdown label.
MP Materials Corp holds its Markdown at $38.30. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 34 days.
| Phase | Markdown · caution |
| Quantitative state | Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 34 days |
| Price at the screen | $38.30 |
| Valuation | N/A trailing · 49.15 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.99 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 26.06% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 26.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 17.19% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 17.2% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 30.55% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 30.6% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
MP Materials clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
MP Materials clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 26%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 5.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +71% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsRare Earths Boom Meets a High Price Tag
Picture a miner digging up materials the world needs for magnets and tech, yet still losing money on every tonne extracted. MP Materials shows explosive revenue growth of 119 percent, but carries a forward multiple of 45.5 times amid negative profit margins and a slim negative return on equity. The narrow moat and cyclical exposure in rare earths make this look like an expensive wager on future demand rather than a clear opportunity at current levels.
We pass because the numbers do not support paying up. A 2 percent negative margin of safety against our fair value leaves no cushion, and the strong buy analyst chorus with an 80 dollar median target ignores how quickly prices and volumes can collapse when China flexes supply or electric vehicle demand slows. High growth today can mask the fact that peak cycle earnings often coincide with stretched multiples that later compress sharply.
Ethical screening clears the company, yet the combination of losses, cyclical swings and full valuation still fails our basic test for sensible risk. The setup rewards patience on the sidelines until margins turn durable and the price aligns with reality. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 49.2xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| EPS, trailing | -0.33 |
| EPS, forward | 0.78 |
| Revenue growth | +119.7%growing very fast |
| Profit margin | -14.6%currently unprofitable |
| Return on equity | -3.6%not currently earning a positive return on equity |
| FCF yield | -6.35% |
| Debt to equity | 0.41minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 9.51comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 1.99much more volatile than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.22% |
| 52-week range | 37.11 - 76.80 |
| Moat | NARROW |
| Market cap | $6.8B |
| Employees | 998 |
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeMP trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29
Markdown $38.30
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $80. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Markdown $38.30
-8.0% Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-10-21
Markdown $41.61
-9.8% Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-10-14
Markdown $46.14
-7.7% Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-10-02
Markdown · changed $50.00
-8.6% Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-09-05
Accumulation · changed $54.70
+31.3% Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 31.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-08-05
Distribution · changed $41.66
-27.6% Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 27.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-07-18
Markup $57.55
+0.0% Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 97%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-07-03
Markup $57.55
+0.0% Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02
Markup $57.55
Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Is MP Materials Stock a Millionaire Maker? Yahoo Finance · 5d ago
- Carrier Plans $600M Fort Worth Advanced Manufacturing Hub Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- MP vs. LYSDY: Which Rare Earth Stock Has an Edge Right Now? Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- Is MP Materials Stock Still a Buy After Its Recent Pullback? Yahoo Finance · 7d ago
- Critical Metals And 2 Rare Earth Stocks To Watch Yahoo Finance · 7d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
LYSDYLynas Rare Earths Limited
LYSCFLynas Rare Earths Limited
MTRNMaterion Corporation
SKESkeena Resources Limited
USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc.
ALMAlmonty Industries Inc.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Gil Cisneros | Democrat | sell | 100K–250K |
| 2026-09-29 | Gil Cisneros | Democrat | sell | 100K–250K |
| 2026-09-25 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| 2026-09-25 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| 2026-09-25 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | sell | 1K–15K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $67.41 | -20.3% | · | $797 | -20.3% |
| 2 months | $55.24 | -2.7% | · | $973 | -2.7% |
| 3 months | $60.03 | -10.5% | · | $895 | -10.5% |
| 6 months | $60.01 | -10.4% | · | $896 | -10.4% |
| 1 year | $27.23 | +97.4% | · | $1,974 | +97.4% |
| 2 years | $14.99 | +258.6% | · | $3,586 | +258.6% |
| 3 years | $21.86 | +145.9% | · | $2,459 | +145.9% |
| 5 years | $32.02 | +67.9% | · | $1,679 | +67.9% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MP does next, these words stay.
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