Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price18.01 USD
Fair value12.91
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Markup17.05+5.6% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Kirin Holdings Company, Limited holds its Markdown at $18.01. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$18.01
Valuation
11.54 trailing · 16.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.04
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: alcohol
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
7,188.52%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 7,188.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
975.34%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 975.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $12.91 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 9.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 28.3% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Kirin looks pricey and ethically stretched
Picture a Tokyo salaryman reaching for a Kirin lager after hours. The same group also sells soft drinks, dairy, wine and even runs a pharmaceuticals arm, yet none of that changes the simple numbers.
We pass. Shares sit 43 percent above our fair value, the forward multiple is 16.4 times, and the debt ratio already fails the ethical screen. Revenue growth of 5 percent and a 6 percent profit margin do not justify stretching the valuation further.
The moderate moat and 12 percent return on equity look steady on paper, yet high debt leaves the business exposed if consumer spending in Japan slows or interest costs rise. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KNBWY trades on PNK (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-03Markup$19.19+4.3%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%.
2026-08-04Markup$18.40+7.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%.
2026-07-18Markup$17.05+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%.
2026-07-03Markup$17.05+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$17.05Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
