Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-07-30
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price152.15 USD
Fair value159.95
Ethical score82.7/100
RatingOVERVALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-04Read Distribution154.72-1.7% to today ✓
2026-07-30Read Markup149.30+1.9% to today ✓
2026-07-18Read Distribution138.12+10.2% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Emerson Electric holds its Markdown at $152.15. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 59 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 59 days
Price at the screen
$152.15
Valuation
33.29 trailing · 21.00 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 82.7
Beta
1.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
32.79%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 32.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.07%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.83%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades at roughly a 5% discount to our $159.95 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 7.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 27 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Factory Controls Priced Beyond Their Reach
Walk into any modern plant and the valves, sensors and software that keep things moving often trace back to Emerson. Yet at $139 the shares sit above our fair value of $154, leaving only an 11 percent cushion on a business growing revenue at just 3 percent a year.
A 19.4 times forward earnings multiple and a 12 percent return on equity do not scream bargain, even with a moderate moat and a clean ethical screen. Analysts may cluster around $165, but that optimism rests on steady industrial spending that has a habit of slowing when cycles turn.
The combination of modest growth, middling returns and limited valuation headroom makes the risk-reward unattractive right now. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EMR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164.
2026-08-05Markup$149.30+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Markup$149.30+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$149.30+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$149.30+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$149.30+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$149.30+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup · changed$149.30+7.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$139.54+1.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164.
2026-07-18Distribution$138.12+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
