Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price525.06 USD
Fair value731.74
Ethical score80.6/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-03Read Markdown593.24-11.5% to today ✓
2026-07-25Read Distribution664.65-21.0% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Cummins holds its Markdown at $525.06. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 28 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 28 days
Price at the screen
$525.06
Valuation
26.87 trailing · 15.16 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 80.6
Beta
1.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
23.87%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 23.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.28%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
25.49%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 25.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.63%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Cummins clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 24%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 39% discount to our $731.74 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 9.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 39.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +47% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Engines that power the world still miss the mark
A long-haul truck on a dusty highway or a backup generator in a storm both rely on the same steady supply of reliable diesel power. Cummins supplies those engines through its five main segments and still posts a 22% return on equity with an 8% profit margin.
We pass because the numbers do not justify ownership. Revenue is growing at just 3%, the moat is narrow, and the shares trade on 19 times forward earnings with only an 11% margin of safety to our fair value. Analyst targets sit higher, yet the modest growth and limited competitive edge leave little room for error.
The bigger worry is the cyclical exposure. When freight volumes or construction spending turn down, earnings can drop faster than the multiple suggests, turning what looks like fair value into a value trap. Ethical screen cleared, but that alone does not make it worth holding.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CMI trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$525.06-11.5%Entry 13
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $721.
2026-09-03Markdown · changed$593.24-10.7%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $721.
2026-08-04Distribution$664.65+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $721. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Distribution$664.65+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $721. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Distribution$664.65+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $721. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Distribution$664.65+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $721. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Distribution$664.65+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $721. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Distribution$664.65+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $721. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Distribution$664.65+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $721. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$664.65+2.1%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $721.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
