Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-11
Options put/call open interest 0.14, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price281.40 USD
Fair value242.25
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-20Read Markup271.19+3.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup with results news in the headlines
2026-10-11Read Distribution274.32+2.6% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since July
2026-08-29Read Markdown282.74-0.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 12% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution252.72+11.3% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Illinois Tool Works holds its Markup at $281.40. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 49 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-29
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 49 days
Price at the screen
$281.40
Valuation
25.10 trailing · 22.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.98
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
57.04%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 57.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
25.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 25.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.25%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Illinois Tool Works's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 57% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-29. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
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Today ITW does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $242.25 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 4.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-29 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-29 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Reliable tools but the price tag fails us
Illinois Tool Works makes the nuts and bolts that keep assembly lines running from Detroit to Düsseldorf. The business delivers nineteen percent profit margins and ninety seven percent return on equity, yet those numbers have not stopped the shares trading well above our fair value.
At two hundred seventy six dollars the stock offers no margin of safety against a two hundred forty five dollar fair value. Five percent revenue growth and a twenty two point seven times forward multiple look rich for a moderate moat, and the ethical screen already flags the debt ratio as a clear fail.
Fourteen analysts sit on a hold rating with a median target of two hundred eighty one, but that consensus ignores the leverage risk that could bite when rates stay higher for longer. We pass.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ITW trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-27Markup$271.19+0.0%Entry 22
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup$271.19+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$271.19+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markup$271.19+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markup$271.19+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markup$271.19+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markup$271.19+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markup · changed$271.19+0.0%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Distribution$271.19-1.1%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
