The Screen · Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Illinois Tool Works
ITW · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $79.4B · 43,000 employees
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
276.05 USD
At the last full screen 2026-07-19
Screened 2026-07-19 · the tape above runs as of 22:40 UTC · 24 Jul · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Illinois Tool Works holds its Distribution at $276.05. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days
Price at the screen
$276.05
Valuation
25.63 trailing · 22.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.01
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
57.04%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 57.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
25.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 25.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.25%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $245.23 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 4.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-07-19 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 11.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-07-19 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Reliable tools but the price tag fails us
Illinois Tool Works makes the nuts and bolts that keep assembly lines running from Detroit to Düsseldorf. The business delivers nineteen percent profit margins and ninety seven percent return on equity, yet those numbers have not stopped the shares trading well above our fair value.
At two hundred seventy six dollars the stock offers no margin of safety against a two hundred forty five dollar fair value. Five percent revenue growth and a twenty two point seven times forward multiple look rich for a moderate moat, and the ethical screen already flags the debt ratio as a clear fail.
Fourteen analysts sit on a hold rating with a median target of two hundred eighty one, but that consensus ignores the leverage risk that could bite when rates stay higher for longer. We pass.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ITW trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-07-24Distribution$276.05+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$276.05+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Distribution$276.05+9.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$252.72+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275.
2026-07-03Distribution$252.72+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$252.72Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
