ITW
Illinois Tool Works
Industrials · Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components · US
$254.76
Close 2025-12-31
✗ ETHICAL FAIL

MODERATE MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$73.3B
Trailing P/E
23.60
Forward P/E
21.00
Rev Growth
+4.6%
Profit Margin
19.3%
ROE
96.8%
Analyst Target
$275.04
Recommendation
HOLD
About Illinois Tool Works

Illinois Tool Works Inc. provides industrial products and equipment in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and South America. It operates through seven segments: Automotive OEM; Food Equipment; Test & Measurement and Electronics; Welding; Polymers & Fluids; Construction Products; and Specialty Products. The Automotive OEM segment offers plastic and metal components, fasteners, and assemblies for automobiles, light trucks, and other industrial uses. The Food Equipment segment provides warewashing, cooking, refrigeration, and food processing equipment; kitchen exhaust, ventilation, and pollution control systems; and food equipment maintenance and repair services. The Test & Measurement and Electronics segment produce and sells test and measurement; and electronic manufacturing and maintenance, repair, and operations solutions. The Welding segment produces arc welding equipment, and metal arc welding consumables and related accessories. The Polymers & Fluids segment produces adhesives, sealants, lubrication and cutting fluids, and fluids and polymers for auto aftermarket maintenance and appearance. The Construction Products segment offers engineered fastening systems and solutions for the residential construction, renovation/remodel, and commercial construction markets. The Specialty Products segment provides beverage packaging equipment and consumables, product coding and marking equipment and consumables, and appliance components and fasteners. The company serves automotive OEM and aftermarket, commercial food equipment, construction, general industrial, industrial capital goods, consumer durables, and other markets, as well as MRO markets. It distributes its products directly to industrial manufacturers, as well as through independent distributors. Illinois Tool Works Inc. was founded in 1912 and is based in Glenview, Illinois.

Opportunity Summary
Trading near fair value at $255 (estimated $243). Moderate competitive position. Fails ethical screen (Debt ratio). Ranks better than 17% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.57%)FAIL
Cash Ratio (0.00%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.25%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.00%)PASS
OverallFAIL
Score Ethical: 10.0
Score Valuation: 50.5
Score Quality: 57.0
Score Combined: 39.4
Fair Value Est: $243.00 · Margin of Safety: -4.6% · Tier: AVOID

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation92.9
Quality52.0
Cash Flow37.5
Moat50.0
Balance Sheet0.0
Debt Purity0.0
Liquid Purity100.0
Rev Purity95.0
Compliance57.4
Tier: BRONZE · Score: 50.4 · Rank: #1785
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-07-292.79Pending--
2026-04-302.562.66+3.8%
2026-02-032.692.72+1.1%
2025-10-242.722.81+3.5%
2025-07-302.562.58+0.6%
2025-04-302.352.38+1.1%
2025-02-052.502.54+1.5%
2024-10-302.523.91+55.0%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$4.0B$768.0M$1.1B$1.8B$1.0B2.66
2025-12-31$4.1B$790.0M$1.2B$1.8B$1.1B2.73
2025-09-30$4.1B$821.0M$1.2B$1.8B$1.1B2.82
2025-06-30$4.1B$755.0M$1.2B$1.8B$1.1B2.58
2025-03-31$3.8B$700.0M$1.1B$1.7B$951.0M2.39
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-05-08BRUTTO DANIEL JDirector765$194.9K
2026-05-08SCANLON JENNIFER F.Director846$215.5K
2026-05-08SANTI ERNEST SCOTTDirector1,883$479.7K
2026-05-08FORD DARRELL LDirector765$194.9K
2026-05-08SMITH DAVID BYRON JR.Director917$233.6K
2026-05-08CROWN SUSANDirector833$212.2K
2026-05-08STROBEL PAMELA BDirector765$194.9K
2026-05-08HENDERSON JAY L.Director765$194.9K
2026-05-08IRICK JAIME ADirector765$194.9K
2026-05-08GRIER KELLY J.Director765$194.9K
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Briar Hall Management LLC25.8M$6.5B0.1%
Blackrock Inc.23.4M$5.9B0.1%
State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co21.0M$5.3B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC17.4M$4.4B0.1%
State Street Corporation12.7M$3.2B0.0%
Northern Trust Corporation11.2M$2.8B0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC7.1M$1.8B0.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC6.8M$1.7B0.0%
Morgan Stanley5.4M$1.4B0.0%
Capital Research Global Investors4.8M$1.2B0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
1
1
10
4
2
18 analysts
2 Months Ago
1
1
10
4
2
18 analysts
Last Month
1
1
10
4
2
18 analysts
Current
1
1
10
4
2
18 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$80.9B
Price/Book
22.47
Beta
1.055
Analysts
16
Total Revenue (TTM)
$16.2B
Total Debt
$9.1B
Earnings Growth
+11.8%
Dividend Yield
253.0%
Rec. Mean
3.39
Short Ratio
7.05
Short % Float
0.0%
Employees
43,000

Elite Intelligence

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 39.4 (P42 — top 58.1% of scored tickers). Moderate Moat. Ethical FAIL. 16 analysts at Hold.
Price: $254.76 | Target: $274.54 (+8%) | Fair Value: $243.00 (+-5%)
Score
39
Moat
MODERATE
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+8%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+4.6%
Profit Margin0.0%
ROE96.8%
Forward P/E21.0
Market Cap$73.3B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-07-29$2.79Pending
2026-04-30$2.56$2.66+3.8%
2026-02-03$2.69$2.72+1.1%
2025-10-24$2.72$2.81+3.5%
2025-07-30$2.56$2.58+0.6%
2025-04-30$2.35$2.38+1.1%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $216.55 (-15%) | Entry: $254.76
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($274.54, 16 analysts)
10$2,547.60+$197.80 (8%)0.5R
50$12,738.00+$989.00 (8%)0.5R
100$25,476.00+$1,978.00 (8%)0.5R
To Fair Value ($243.00)
10$2,547.60+$-117.60 (-5%)-0.3R
50$12,738.00+$-588.00 (-5%)-0.3R
100$25,476.00+$-1,176.00 (-5%)-0.3R
Risk Factors
  • Elevated short interest (7.05 days to cover)
The Verdict
Illinois Tool Works holds a moderate competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

C
Quant Score
46.6
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Quality: CONSISTENT_BEATER,STRONG_EARNINGS_DRIFT
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-1.9%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-3.0%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
0.36
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-20.6%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
95
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
ABOVE_200
Bollinger Position
LOWER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
1.4x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
100.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
TickerCorrelation
XLB0.739
DOV0.739
NDSN0.738
XLI0.734
IR0.705
Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
SUKOON.AE-0.246
BAES.L-0.182
LPTVQ-0.166
5285.KL-0.124
4292.SR-0.119
Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Tuesday
Worst Day
Friday
Best Month
Feb
Worst Month
Mar
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.058875226522285204
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
+2.9%
Beat Drift Positive %
85.7%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
-7.0%
3M Return
-14.4%
6M Return
+5.2%
12M Return
+4.9%
Momentum Rank
#3420
Momentum Signal
DOWN

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