Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 00:54 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Cadence Design Systems holds its Distribution at $284.11. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$284.11
Valuation
56.48 trailing · 29.77 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 76.6
Beta
1.14
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.77%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.66%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
34.41%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 34.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.92%
Below 5%
Only 1.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades at roughly a 15% discount to our $326.57 fair value, strong competitive moat, 24.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 14.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 27 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +43% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Premium chip tools trade above fair value
Engineers building the next wave of AI chips depend on Cadence software every day to verify designs before they reach silicon. The business shows real strength, with 19% revenue growth, 21% profit margins and a strong moat that keeps competitors at bay, yet the shares sit 2% above our fair value at a forward multiple of 35 times.
We pass because the price already bakes in the strong buy ratings from 26 analysts and their 400 dollar median target. Growth and returns on equity look solid, but paying a premium leaves investors exposed if growth slows even modestly or if broader tech spending pulls back.
Currency moves and customer concentration in semiconductors add further volatility on top of the stretched valuation. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CDNS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Markdown · changed$313.59-3.9%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380.
2026-07-27Distribution$326.24+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$326.24+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Accumulation$330.11+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Accumulation$330.11+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Accumulation$330.11+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Accumulation$330.11+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Accumulation$330.11-12.2%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 12.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Accumulation$376.19+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
