Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-10-08
Options put/call open interest 0.54, read 2026-11-01
Ethical passes the values gate
Price417.11 USD
Fair value303.47
Ethical score87.8/100
RatingOVERVALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markup403.95+3.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-19Read Accumulation403.95+3.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Markup393.60+6.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup after an 8% rise in 2 weeks
2026-09-18Read Markdown363.20+14.8% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Analog Devices holds its Markup at $417.11. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 70 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 70 days
Price at the screen
$417.11
Valuation
51.46 trailing · 26.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 87.8
Beta
1.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.05%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
2.40%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.20%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.96%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Analog Devices clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 18%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-01. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today ADI passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $303.47 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 39.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 27.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 32 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $303.47, with a range of $303.47 to $348.99, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Silicon Surge with a Shadow of a Cyclical Past
Imagine a world where every piece of tech, from smartphones to cars, requires the meticulous conversion of analog signals into digital language. Analog Devices sits at the heart of this transformation, crafting the chips that make it happen. Its revenue growth is a robust 40%, a testament to its success in this increasingly digital world. Why it stands out. Despite this impressive figure, we peg the fair value at $300.21, a discount to the current price of $370.24, signaling a generous margin of safety at -19%.
However, the forward P/E of 22.7x and the company's narrow moat width should prompt caution, especially considering the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry. Profit margins are commendable at 30%, and the ROE sits at a less eye-catching 12%. The consensus among 30 analysts is a strong buy, with a lofty median target of $462, yet we must approach such optimism with the knowledge that peak earnings in cyclical industries can often lead to a value trap.
The ethical screen gives the green light, and while the numbers tell an intriguing tale, the risk is not negligible. With the industry's cyclical swings, the current high revenue growth could be a temporary peak, making the stock appear cheaper than it might actually be in the long run. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ADI trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Markup$417.11+3.3%Entry 18
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $446. Since the last review it dropped out of the Titan Ethical 500.
2026-10-26Markup · changed$403.95+0.0%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $446.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $446.
2026-10-12Markup$406.19+3.2%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $446.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$393.60+8.4%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $446.
2026-09-18Markdown · changed$363.20-3.8%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $446.
2026-08-19Markup$377.69+0.0%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $446. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-18Markup · changed$377.69+0.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $446. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-16Distribution$377.69+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $446. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-15Distribution$377.69+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $446. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
