Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-28
Options put/call open interest 0.31, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price66.79 USD
Fair value53.50
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Markup77.02-13.3% to today Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-10-11Read Markdown74.99-10.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since September
2026-10-02Read Accumulation74.99-10.9% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-16Read Markdown71.72-6.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Viasat Inc holds its Markup at $66.79. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 260 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 260 days
Price at the screen
$66.79
Valuation
N/A trailing · 398.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
45.58%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 45.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.02%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
4.44%
Below 5%
Only 4.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Viasat's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 46% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today VSAT does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $53.50 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 24.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets. The average target sits +58% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $53.50, with a range of $44.10 to $61.53, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Satellites Promise Reach but Valuation Stretches Thin
Picture a plane or remote rig pulling live data through space instead of patchy ground links. Viasat sits in that niche, mixing satellite broadband with defence kit, yet the business shows almost no momentum.
We pass because forward earnings sit at 177 times while revenue edges up just 2 percent and margins remain negative. The shares trade 31 percent above fair value with a weak moat and zero return on equity, so the opportunity rating stays none despite clearing the ethical screen.
High fixed costs in orbit leave little room for error if growth stays flat or contracts bite harder. Weak returns and thin pricing power keep the setup fragile even before any new competition lands. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VSAT trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup$66.79-11.2%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 480%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Markup$75.24-2.3%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 480%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markup$77.02+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 480%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$77.02+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 480%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup · changed$77.02+16.0%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 480%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$66.39+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 480%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$66.39+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 480%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown$66.39+7.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 480%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$61.73+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 480%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89.
2026-10-18Markdown$61.73-17.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 17.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 64% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 480%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
