AST SpaceMobile, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops the constellation of BlueBird satellites in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
62.71 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-17
Screened 2026-09-17 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
AST SpaceMobile Inc holds its Markdown at $62.71. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$62.71
Valuation
N/A trailing · -48.64 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.73
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
47.33%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 47.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
69.42%
Below 5%
69.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 31.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Space phone dreams meet brutal early numbers
Picture a satellite overhead letting any phone make a call without a tower nearby. AST SpaceMobile is trying to build that network from scratch. The idea grabs attention yet we pass because the business is still pre profit with a forward multiple that sits deep in negative territory.
Revenue is exploding off a tiny base while margins remain zero and return on equity sits at minus 38 percent. A narrow moat and a hold rating from analysts reflect the long road to cash flow. The gap between current price and our fair value looks wide on paper but does not change the fact that this is still a development story.
Execution risk is high, capital needs will stay heavy, and any delay could widen losses further. Currency moves or spectrum issues would add pressure on an already stretched balance sheet. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ASTS trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 23.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-22Markup$57.80-29.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 29.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-18Markup$82.41+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-03Markup$82.41+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$82.41Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.