Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 3.81, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price30.20 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Markdown60.65-50.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 15% slide in 7 weeks
2026-08-22Read Accumulation71.52-57.8% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 13% slide in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup82.41-63.4% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
AST SpaceMobile Inc holds its Markdown at $30.20. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 57 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 57 days
Price at the screen
$30.20
Valuation
N/A trailing · -20.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.85
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
47.33%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 47.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
69.42%
Below 5%
69.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
AST SpaceMobile's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 45% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 2.58x the price, above our 2.00x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Space phone dreams meet brutal early numbers
Picture a satellite overhead letting any phone make a call without a tower nearby. AST SpaceMobile is trying to build that network from scratch. The idea grabs attention yet we pass because the business is still pre profit with a forward multiple that sits deep in negative territory.
Revenue is exploding off a tiny base while margins remain zero and return on equity sits at minus 38 percent. A narrow moat and a hold rating from analysts reflect the long road to cash flow. The gap between current price and our fair value looks wide on paper but does not change the fact that this is still a development story.
Execution risk is high, capital needs will stay heavy, and any delay could widen losses further. Currency moves or spectrum issues would add pressure on an already stretched balance sheet. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ASTS trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06Markdown$30.20-15.2%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 15.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-05Markdown$35.62-4.1%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Markdown$37.15-9.3%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markdown$40.97+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markdown$40.97+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markdown$40.97+5.7%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-25Markdown$38.77-12.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Markdown$44.46-26.7%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 26.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$60.65-2.0%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Accumulation$61.89+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.