NAS10030,808+1.00%S&P7,723+0.73%GOLD$4,196+0.81%BTC$86,156−0.37%VIX16.35+6.79%live tape · as of 09:01 UTC
The Screen · Technology · Communication Equipment
Ciena
CIEN · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $50.6B · 8,898 employees
Ciena Corporation, a network technology company, provides hardware, software, and services for various network operators in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and India.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price356.91 USD
Fair value427.34
Ethical score77.4/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-03Read Distribution392.48-9.1% to today ✓
2026-08-25Read Markup392.48-9.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ciena holds its Markup at $356.91. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 47 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 47 days
Price at the screen
$356.91
Valuation
78.96 trailing · 30.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 77.4
Beta
1.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
27.72%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 27.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.97%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
35.26%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 35.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.15%
Below 5%
Only 1.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Ciena clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 28%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $427.34 fair value, weak competitive moat, 37.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +54% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Network upgrades look busy but price stays rich
Every time a carrier lights up another stretch of fibre, Ciena's boxes move the traffic. Yet the shares already price in years of that demand at 38.8 times forward earnings, leaving little room for the modest 8 percent profit margin and 15 percent return on equity the business actually delivers.
We pass because the weak moat and high multiple outweigh the 40 percent revenue growth and the thin margin of safety above our fair value. Analysts may cluster around a 600 dollar target, but history shows communication equipment margins compress quickly once spending cycles turn.
The main risk sits in customer concentration and pricing pressure from larger rivals, which can erase the current growth spurt without warning. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CIEN trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution$356.91-9.1%Entry 14
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 119% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 498%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $452.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 119% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 498%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $452. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-02Markup$392.48+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 119% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 498%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $452. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-01Markup$392.48+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 119% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 498%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $452. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Markup$392.48+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 119% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 498%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $452. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Markup$392.48+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 119% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 498%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $452. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-29Markup$392.48+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 119% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 498%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $452. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-28Markup$392.48+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 119% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 498%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $452. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-27Markup$392.48+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 119% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 498%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $452. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup$392.48+4.8%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 119% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 498%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $452.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.