Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.23, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price481.83 USD
Fair value517.60
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Accumulation456.39+5.6% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown456.88+5.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-05Read Distribution473.63+1.7% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-06Read Markup438.14+10.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 7% rise in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Motorola Solutions holds its Accumulation at $481.83. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 33 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 33 days
Price at the screen
$481.83
Valuation
35.71 trailing · 23.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
50.37%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 50.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.22%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.34%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.50%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Motorola Solutions's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 50% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when MSI's ethical verdict changes
Today MSI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS Movement
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for providing surveillance and communications technology used at Israeli military checkpoints and in the occupied territories. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 13% discount to our $517.60 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 13.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Motorola Solutions fails our debt screen test
Every time a police officer calls for backup or a city upgrades its radio network, Motorola Solutions kit is probably sitting in the middle of it. The business posts solid 7% revenue growth, 18% margins and a near 100% ROE, yet we are staying away. It fails the ethical screen on its debt ratio, and that single red flag overrides the surface appeal.
The forward multiple of 22 times earnings already prices in steady execution and a moderate moat. High analyst targets around 509 dollars reflect the buy ratings, but none of that moves the needle once the debt test is failed. We do not bend the screen for strong returns or government exposure.
Debt levels remain the core risk even if cash flow looks reliable today. Any rise in rates or spending cuts in public budgets would quickly expose the leverage. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MSI trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $507. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$456.39+2.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $507.
2026-10-14Markdown$444.18-2.8%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $507.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$456.88-3.5%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $507.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $507.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$438.14+6.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $507.
2026-07-18Distribution$410.34+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $507.
2026-07-03Distribution$410.34+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$410.34Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
