LITE
Lumentum
Information Technology · Communications Equipment · US
$903.80
Close 2025-06-30
✗ ETHICAL FAIL

MODERATE MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$70.3B
Trailing P/E
158.80
Forward P/E
50.20
Rev Growth
+90.1%
Profit Margin
17.7%
ROE
22.8%
Analyst Target
$1,104.68
Recommendation
BUY
About Lumentum

Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through two segments, Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech. The Cloud & Networking segment offers optical and photonic chips, components, modules, and subsystems supplied to cloud data center operators, AI/ML infrastructure providers, and network equipment manufacturer customers that are building cloud data centers and network infrastructures. Its Industrial Tech segment provides short-pulse solid-state lasers, kilowatt-class fiber lasers, diode lasers, and gas lasers that serves the semiconductor device, solar cell, display, and electric vehicle and battery manufacturing markets. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $904, 101% above fair value of $450. Moderate competitive position. Fails ethical screen (Debt ratio). Ranks better than 17% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.62%)FAIL
Cash Ratio (0.08%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.18%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.02%)PASS
OverallFAIL
Score Ethical: 10.0
Score Valuation: 16.5
Score Quality: 57.8
Score Combined: 31.1
Fair Value Est: $450.00 · Margin of Safety: -50.2% · Tier: AVOID

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation0.0
Quality65.0
Cash Flow1.2
Moat50.0
Balance Sheet60.4
Debt Purity0.0
Liquid Purity74.4
Rev Purity58.2
Compliance39.0
Tier: AVOID · Score: 22.7 · Rank: #5056
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-08-122.96Pending--
2026-05-052.272.37+4.6%
2026-02-031.411.67+18.6%
2025-11-041.031.10+7.0%
2025-08-120.810.88+8.9%
2025-05-060.500.57+13.7%
2025-02-060.360.42+17.0%
2024-11-070.120.18+48.0%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$808.4M$144.2M$256.6M$357.0M$175.6M1.99
2025-12-31$665.5M$78.2M$167.4M$240.1M$63.9M1.10
2025-09-30$533.8M$4.2M$73.1M$181.5M$15.0M0.06
2025-06-30$480.7M$213.3M$55.1M$159.9M-$3.2M3.06
2025-03-31$425.2M-$44.1M$26.6M$122.5M-$65.4M-0.64
2024-12-31
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-05-18KIM JAEGeneral Counsel1,422$1.4M
2026-05-18ALI WAJIDChief Financial Officer2,487$2.4M
2026-05-18RETORT VINCENT DOfficer3,183$3.0M
2026-05-18WUPEN YUENOfficer3,210$3.1M
2026-05-15FLETCHER PAMELADirector3,155$3.1M
2026-05-11KIM JAEGeneral Counsel1,933$1.8M
2026-05-11LILLIE BRIAN JDirector11,951$11.7M
2026-05-11LILLIE BRIAN JDirector49$49.2K
2026-05-08SMALL IAN SEYMOURDirector3,500$3.2M
2026-02-27HARRIS ISAAC HOSOJIROOfficer and Director611--
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Blackrock Inc.7.8M$7.4B0.1%
FMR, LLC7.2M$6.8B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC4.6M$4.4B0.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC3.7M$3.5B0.0%
State Street Corporation3.0M$2.9B0.0%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO2.9M$2.8B0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC2.1M$2.0B0.0%
UBS Group AG1.4M$1.3B0.0%
WT Asset Management Ltd1.4M$1.3B0.0%
Capital World Investors1.3M$1.2B0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
4
14
5
23 analysts
2 Months Ago
4
14
5
23 analysts
Last Month
4
14
4
22 analysts
Current
4
15
5
24 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$68.0B
Price/Book
79.86
Beta
1.533
Analysts
24
Total Revenue (TTM)
$2.5B
Total Debt
$3.3B
Rec. Mean
1.58
Short Ratio
1.62
Short % Float
0.1%
Employees
10,562

Elite Intelligence

Trade Consideration with position sizing, convergence signals, and risk analysis. Available to Elite members.

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 31.1 (P16 — top 84.5% of scored tickers). Moderate Moat. Ethical FAIL. 24 analysts at Buy.
Price: $903.80 | Target: $1,104.68 (+22%) | Fair Value: $450.00 (+-50%)
Score
31
Moat
MODERATE
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+22%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+90.1%
Profit Margin0.0%
ROE22.8%
Forward P/E50.2
Market Cap$70.3B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-08-12$2.96Pending
2026-05-05$2.27$2.37+4.6%
2026-02-03$1.41$1.67+18.6%
2025-11-04$1.03$1.10+7.0%
2025-08-12$0.81$0.88+8.9%
2025-05-06$0.50$0.57+13.7%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $768.23 (-15%) | Entry: $903.80
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($1,104.68, 24 analysts)
10$9,038.00+$2,008.80 (22%)1.5R
50$45,190.00+$10,044.00 (22%)1.5R
100$90,380.00+$20,088.00 (22%)1.5R
To Fair Value ($450.00)
10$9,038.00+$-4,538.00 (-50%)-3.3R
50$45,190.00+$-22,690.00 (-50%)-3.3R
100$90,380.00+$-45,380.00 (-50%)-3.3R
Risk Factors
  • High beta (1.53) — amplifies market moves by 1.53x
  • Valuation stretched on forward earnings
The Verdict
Lumentum holds a moderate competitive moat and is growing revenue at +90.1%.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

A
Quant Score
72.6
Risk Grade
Layers
8
Quality: HIGH_SORTINO,CONSISTENT_BEATER,STRONG_EARNINGS_DRIFT
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-7.1%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-10.8%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
2.69
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-50.6%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
95
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
ABOVE_200
Bollinger Position
LOWER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
1.1x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
100.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
TickerCorrelation
COHR0.754
CIEN0.705
GLW0.624
VRT0.624
ETN0.621
Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
ED-0.284
AWK-0.280
CBOE-0.249
GIS-0.213
AWR-0.209
Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Wednesday
Worst Day
Thursday
Best Month
Nov
Worst Month
Mar
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.366365143861074
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
+27.4%
Beat Drift Positive %
85.7%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
+3.3%
3M Return
+32.3%
6M Return
+290.5%
12M Return
+1100.3%
Momentum Rank
#39
Momentum Signal
STRONG_UP

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