LITE · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $87.8B · 10,562 employees
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
978.54 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Lumentum holds its Markup at $978.54. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 142 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 142 days
Price at the screen
$978.54
Valuation
N/A trailing · 29.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.54
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
61.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 61.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
8.45%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
18.27%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 18.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.09%
Below 5%
Only 2.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 4% discount to our $1,016.92 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 109.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Photonics Maker Trips on Debt and Price
Every time a hyperscale data centre flips a switch, Lumentum's lasers and transceivers carry the traffic. Yet the numbers do not clear our bar. Revenue is surging 90 percent, returns on equity sit at 23 percent and margins look respectable, but the forward multiple of 40 times leaves little room for disappointment.
We pass because the valuation already prices in perfection while the ethical screen flags a clear fail on the debt ratio. Moderate moat or not, paying top dollar for a company that cannot meet basic balance-sheet standards is not a risk worth taking.
Analysts may cluster around a higher target, yet history shows tech hardware cycles turn fast and high debt amplifies the damage when they do. The modest margin of safety on offer does not offset either the premium or the ethical red flag.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LITE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-12Markup$978.54+18.4%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 18.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105.
2026-08-12Markup$826.26+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-11Markup$826.26+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-09Markup$826.26+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-08Markup$826.26+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$826.26+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-06Distribution$826.26+16.1%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 16.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-05Distribution$711.96+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 17.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105.
2026-07-18Markup$863.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
