Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.87, read 2026-10-23
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price756.17 USD
Fair value1,068.28
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Distribution869.54-13.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Accumulation941.65-19.7% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 14% rise in 9 weeks
2026-08-07Read Markup826.26-8.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 16% rise in 3 days
2026-08-04Read Distribution711.96+6.2% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after an 18% slide in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Lumentum holds its Distribution at $756.17. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 208 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 208 days
Price at the screen
$756.17
Valuation
N/A trailing · 24.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.54
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
61.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 61.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
8.45%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
18.27%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 18.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.09%
Below 5%
Only 2.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Lumentum's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 62% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when LITE's ethical verdict changes
Today LITE does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 23% discount to our $1,068.28 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 109.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 22.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +59% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Photonics Maker Trips on Debt and Price
Every time a hyperscale data centre flips a switch, Lumentum's lasers and transceivers carry the traffic. Yet the numbers do not clear our bar. Revenue is surging 90 percent, returns on equity sit at 23 percent and margins look respectable, but the forward multiple of 40 times leaves little room for disappointment.
We pass because the valuation already prices in perfection while the ethical screen flags a clear fail on the debt ratio. Moderate moat or not, paying top dollar for a company that cannot meet basic balance-sheet standards is not a risk worth taking.
Analysts may cluster around a higher target, yet history shows tech hardware cycles turn fast and high debt amplifies the damage when they do. The modest margin of safety on offer does not offset either the premium or the ethical red flag.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LITE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Distribution$869.54+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105.
2026-10-02Markup$941.65-3.8%Entry 13
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105.
2026-09-12Markup$978.54+18.4%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 18.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105.
2026-08-12Markup$826.26+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-11Markup$826.26+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-09Markup$826.26+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-08Markup$826.26+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$826.26+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 104% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 960%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 57%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
