An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk provides information and communications technology, and telecommunications network services worldwide.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $14.39
Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT ADR holds its Distribution at $14.39.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 72 days
Price
$14.39
Valuation
15.81 trailing · 9.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.13
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$14.39
15.81 P/E · 9.37 fwd
Our fair value
$18.35
28% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$18.35
+28% to current
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$14.39
you are here
Conservative
$18.35
+28%
Analyst avg
$18.35
+28%
Our fair value
$18.35
+28%
Analyst high
$18.35
+28%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
1.50%
Profit margin
11.28%
Debt to equity
44.12
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 1 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard — its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Indonesia Telecom Lacks Growth to Justify a Bet
Picture a vast island nation where every call, payment and video stream still runs through one familiar network. Telkom Indonesia sits at the centre of that flow, yet it grows revenue at just 2 percent a year, carries a narrow moat and posts an 11 percent profit margin. The shares sit at 9.5 times forward earnings, well below our fair value, but the business offers little reason to expect that gap will close.
We pass because low single-digit growth and modest returns on equity leave little room for sustained re-rating. One analyst covers the name and offers no consensus view, which matches the thin catalyst list.
Currency swings, regulatory pressure and competition from newer data players add real downside in an emerging market. The ethical screen clears, yet the numbers still fail to excite. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $24. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$15.86+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-03Distribution$15.86+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$15.86Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$17.08
-10.2%
·
$898
-10.2%
2 months
$18.78
-18.3%
·
$817
-18.3%
3 months
$17.96
-14.6%
·
$854
-14.6%
6 months
$21.59
-29.0%
·
$710
-29.0%
1 year
$16.71
-8.2%
$1.29
$995
-0.5%
2 years
$17.06
-10.1%
$1.29
$974
-2.6%
3 years
$23.73
-35.4%
$3.53
$795
-20.5%
5 years
$19.80
-22.6%
$5.75
$1,065
+6.5%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever TLK does next, these words stay.
Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT ADR · TLK · Distribution · $14.39
Recorded 2026-07-29 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
